Tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies continued to indicate La Niña conditions during February. However, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions to develop over the next month and persist through the U.S. growing season, giving 62% odds of such for the June-August period. CPC notes, “As is typical for forecasts made in the spring, there is large forecast uncertainty at longer time horizons.”
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said last week, “ENSO remains neutral despite a brief period from December to February when the tropical Pacific shifted towards a La Niña-like state.” The bureau’s model predicts ENSO-neutral conditions until at least July, which is consistent with all surveyed international models.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency said La Niña-like conditions in the atmosphere and ocean have remained but began to weaken. It predicts 60% odds ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through summer.