As of Nov. 15, 82% of the U.S. was experiencing abnormal dryness/drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, down 3 percentage points from the previous week. But the area of winter wheat USDA estimated to be in drought conditions increased 1 point to 75%.
In HRW areas, dryness/drought covers 83% of Colorado (unchanged), 100% of Kansas (unchanged), 90% of Montana (unchanged), 100% of Nebraska (unchanged), 100% of Oklahoma (unchanged), 100% of South Dakota (unchanged) and 89% of Texas (down 1 point).
In SRW areas, dryness/drought covers 87% of Missouri (unchanged), 77% of Illinois (up 2 points), 98% of Indiana (unchanged), 76% of Ohio (down 12 points), 39% of Michigan (up 2 points), 100% of Kentucky (up 1 point) and 97% of Tennessee (down 1 point).
For the Plains, the Drought Monitor noted: “An early-season winter storm produced significant, wind-driven snow and freezing rain across parts of the Dakotas. Officially, 17.0 inches of snow—with a liquid equivalency of 1.23 inches—blanketed Bismarck, North Dakota, on November 10, accompanied by wind gusts as high as 37 mph. Elsewhere in North Dakota, wind gusts at the height of the storm reached or exceeded 40 mph in Garrison, Jamestown, and Minot. Bitterly cold weather trailed the storm. The northern Plains’ moisture, while highly beneficial for winter wheat, had a limited immediate effect on the drought situation, leading to only small improvements in the depiction. Farther south, drought continued to gradually worsen in other parts of the region. On November 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported topsoil moisture rated very short to short ranging from 65% in North Dakota to 87% in South Dakota. On the same date, winter wheat across the region remained in dismal condition, with more than one-third of the crop rated very poor to poor in Colorado (45%), Kansas (40%), Nebraska (38%), and South Dakota (37%).”
In the Midwest, the Drought Monitor commentary stated: “Heavy precipitation in the upper Great Lakes region provided drought relief, but many other areas of the Midwest experienced dry weather. Eastern Michigan was one area that had a notable increase in the coverage of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1). In contrast, heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Nicole fell in eastern sections of Ohio and Kentucky. Zanesville, Ohio, received a daily-record rainfall total of 2.20 inches on November 11. A day earlier in Minnesota, a winter-like storm system had delivered daily-record precipitation totals to Minnesota locations such as Hibbing (1.35 inches) and Brainerd (1.27 inches). Even with nearly an inch of rain falling in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, from November 8-10, the Twin Cities’ year-to-date precipitation remained more than 9 inches below normal. Meanwhile, the Ohio River experienced a beneficial rise from runoff related to Nicole. Along the Kentucky-Indiana border, the Ohio River at the Markland Lower gauge site rose nearly 12 feet between November 12 and 15. Farther downstream, in southern Illinois, the Ohio River climbed above low-water stages of 15.0 feet in Shawneetown and 9.4 feet in Cairo. Just last month, the preliminary minimum stage at Cairo, 4.88 feet on October 17, represented the lowest river level in that location since 1901. Cairo’s stage climbed to 15 feet (and rising) by November 15. Late in the drought-monitoring period, light to moderately heavy snow overspread much of the Midwest. Minneapolis-St. Paul measured a daily-record snowfall (2.5 inches) on November 14. The following day, record-setting snowfall totals for the 15th included 3.5 inches in Waterloo, Iowa, and 2.8 inches in Madison, Wisconsin.”
Across the South, the Drought Monitor noted: “Late in the drought-monitoring period, precipitation developed across eastern sections of Oklahoma and Texas before spreading into the lower Mississippi Valley. Targeted reductions in drought coverage up to one category were made where the heaviest rain fell. However, much of the region received little or no precipitation. By November 13, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated topsoil moisture at least one-half very short to short in Oklahoma (76%), Texas (71%), and Louisiana (58%). On the same date, the recently planted winter wheat crop continued to struggle in the driest areas, with 48% of the crop rated in very poor to poor condition in Texas, along with 42% in Oklahoma. In Arkansas, only 59% of the winter wheat had emerged by November 13, compared to the 5-year average of 66%. Rangeland and pastures continued to reflect the effects of drought, with 82% rated in very poor to poor condition in Oklahoma, along with 62% in Arkansas, and 57% in Texas.”
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to persist across HRW areas over the next three months. But drought improvement or removal is likely over most of the major SRW producing states, especially through the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys.