Drop in corn and soybean ratings catch market off guard

USDA rated 62% of the U.S. corn crop in “good” or “excellent” (G/E) condition, a two-point decline from the week prior whereas analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected ratings to hold steady. The amount of corn rated “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP) also climbed two points to 13%. The latest drought monitor confirmed lighter-than-expected rains over the past week failed to prevent drought from expanding and intensifying across northern and western areas of the Midwest.

Today’s update shows 73% of the crop was in dough as of Sunday, which is five-points more than the five-year average. The report showed 22% of the crop was dented as of Sunday, which was right in line with the average for this point in the season.

Soybean ratings also surprise to the downside

Soybean condition ratings dropped three percentage points to 57%, which contrasted notably with expectations for that rating to hold steady. USDA now puts 15% of the crop in P/VP, up two percentage points from the week prior. Again, rains have not been widespread or heavy enough to counter the ongoing expansion of drought in the western Corn Belt.

In Minnesota, just 29% of the crop is rated G/E, a five-point drop from the week prior. Fifty-eight percent of the Iowa bean crop is now rated G/E, a two-point dip from the week prior. The Nebraska crop rating also fell 4 percentage points to 72% G/E. Also of note, USDA now rates 71% of Illinois bean crop G/E, a seven-point decline from the week prior.

As of Sunday, USDA reports 94% of the bean crop was blooming and 81% of it was setting pods, which compares with 94% blooming and 79% setting pods for the five-year averages, respectively.

Spring wheat ratings hold at low levels, quick harvest continues

USDA once again rated 11% of the U.S. spring wheat crop G/E, which was in line with expectations. A remarkable 63% of the crop is rated P/VP, up two percentage points from the week prior.

Producers made big strides harvesting their drought-battered crop over the past week, with harvest jumping 20 points ahead to 58% complete. Last year at this time, 36% of the crop had been cut.

Cotton ratings improve again

Cotton condition ratings climbed two percentage points to 67% G/E, with moisture continuing to benefit the crop. Last year at this time, just 45% of the crop received top marks. In top-producing Texas, 64% of the crop falls in the top two categories.

Cotton crop development continues to lag the norm, with 93% of the crop squaring, 75% of it setting bolls and 10% of it with bolls open. The five-year average is for 99% of the crop to be squaring, 82% of it to be setting bolls, and 15% of it to be squaring at this point in the season, respectively.