Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed just 155.11 million bu. of soybeans during July, which was nearly 4 million bu. lighter than analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated on average and a dramatic, 10.2% decline from last year’s 172.79 million bu. crush. Processing was up slightly from the 152.41 million bu. July crush. This was the smallest July crush since 2017.
Plant downtime, tight supplies and high prices had a bigger impact on processing than the market anticipated. It also signals USDA’s crush forecast of 2.155 billion bu. for 2020-21 is probably too high. We expect a crush of 2.140 billion bu. for the marketing year that ends Sept. 30, which would be a 25 million bu. decline from the year prior.
Soyoil stocks rose to 1.617 billion lbs. at the end of July, another disappointing signal given the smaller-than-expected crush. Analysts had expected supplies of soyoil to slide to 1.505 billion lbs. from 1.537 billion lbs. at the end of June. Implied daily consumption was very slow at 56.63 million pounds per day. But the yield of 11.83 lbs. per bu. crushed was high. A dive in exports due to elevated use likely pulled back usage, as did a decline in domestic use.