AgResource sampled fields across Mato Grosso, Brazil, this week, confirming “impressive crop potential” in the country’s top producing state. Areas of the state were waterlogged and the group noted some disease pressure unknown to agronomists and scientists, but overall yields will be strong.
Following are highlights from the firm’s tour through Mato Grosso:
Day 1: The firm reported “generally high yield potential” in the central part of the state. AgResource says the principality of Sorriso’s soybean yield will likely be a record or near record-high, “but there are concerns.” The firm notes it has been much wetter than average in central Brazil since Dec. 1 – 105% to 140% of normal rainfall. Standing water was present in some of the fields AgResource sampled on the first day and producers “bemoaned excessive rainfall and days without sunshine.” While the waterlogged issues weren’t widespread, they have impacted yields and harvest activity. The firm noted harvest is eight to 10 days behind schedule in the areas it sampled from on Monday.
Day 2: AgResource found much better yield potential than the first day but confirmation that Brazil’s top producing state is struggling with diseases currently unknown by agronomists and for which there are currently no solutions. This along with cloudy days and regionally excessive rainfall continues to cap yield potential, but the firm says a record crop in Mato Grosso is certain. AgResource noted harvest is ongoing and will accelerate this week. Combines and safrinha corn plants “are active.”
Day 3: The firm found mixed results but again confirmed record production potential for the country. Harvest in this area of Mato Grosso is still a couple weeks away, with the bulk of the harvesting expected to occur in the first half of February. AgResource noted, “There is some uncertainty about harvest losses given new incurable (for now) diseases are present. Farmers suggest that final farm-wide yields will be challenged to exceed 60 bu. per acre. But there is very little doubt a massive Brazilian soybean crop will be available to the global marketplace in the next 30-45 days. Dry weather in Mato Grosso over the next five to seven days will allow harvest state-wide to reach 6% to 8% complete by the weekend. Additionally, safrinha corn planting will occur on a timely basis.”
Summary: “A large Brazilian soybean crop will be harvested in the next 30-45 days. Impressive best defines Mato Grosso’s crop potential in 2023. There will be yield loss in the far south of Brazil, but yield gains in Mato Grosso and surrounding states will be more than offsetting.” The average yield from samples AgResource collected was 60.3 bu. per acre. Conab estimated Mato Grosso’s state-wide yield at 53.5 bu. per acre.
AgResource estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 153.5 MMT.