Corn ratings stabilize, soybean and spring wheat ratings still falling

USDA rated 64% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent” (G/E) as of July 4, steady with the week prior and the first time ratings haven’t fallen this season. Recent rains across much of the Midwest helped stabilize the crop, with improving conditions in southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt more offsetting the drying trend in the northwest part of the region. The amount of corn USDA rates “excellent” climbed a percentage point. But it should also be noted that USDA now rates 9% of the crop “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP), a one-point rise from the week prior. Last year at this time, 71% of the crop was rated G/E and 6% was rated P/VP.

Ten percent of the U.S. corn crop is silking, up six points from last week but behind 14% silking for the five-year average.

Soybean conditions continue to erode

As of July 4, USDA rates just 59% of the U.S. soybean crop G/E, a one-point slide from the week prior whereas analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated a steady rating. A mix of heat and drying to the northwest and excess rainfall in some southern and eastern areas resulted in another downtick. The amount of beans in the top two categories is now 12 points shy of year-ago at this point.

USDA reports 29% of the crop is blooming and 3% of it is setting pods, which compares to 24% and 3% for the five-year average, respectively.

Half the spring wheat crop now rated P/VP

Analysts continue to be proven overly optimistic about the condition of this year’s spring wheat crop. USDA sliced another four points off the amount of crop rated G/E, with just 16% of the crop now falling in the top two categories versus analysts’ expectations for a 19% G/E rating on average. That’s still above 1988 when 7% of the crop was rated G/E, but that’s a pretty sad comparison. Of particular note, the amount of crop rated P/VP jumped 11 points to 50%, as continued dry weather and heat whittled crop prospects. Some rains fell on the Northern Plains this weekend and more rain is possible this week, but the moisture won’t do much good at this point.

USDA reports 69% of the crop was headed as of Sunday, a 21-point gain from the week prior and seven points ahead of average, with dry weather accelerating crop development.

Little change in cotton ratings

USDA again rated 52% of the U.S. cotton crop in G/E condition, but that masked a one-point shift from the excellent to the good category. And the amount of crop rated P/VP climbed three percentage points to 10%. Recent rains for West Texas helped improve ratings to some degree, with Tropical Storm Elsa expected to bring more rain to the key cotton producing state this week. But Georgia has also been dealing with too much rain, with more on the way. Last year at this time, 43% of the crop was rated G/E.

The development of the crop lags the average by a few percentage points, with 42% of it squaring and 11% of it setting bolls. In Texas, 34% of the crop is squaring compared with the usual 36%.

Winter wheat harvest inching toward half complete

Winter wheat harvest advanced 12 percentage points over the past week to 45% complete, whereas analysts expected USDA to report 47% of the crop had been cut. Progress now lags the five-year average by eight percentage points. Top-producing Kansas has harvested 62% of its crop versus the average 72% cut at this point in the season.

USDA rates 47% of the crop G/E, an unexpected one-point dip from last week. But analysts are not overly concerned about crop ratings with harvest nearing half complete. This is the last condition rating of the season.