Corn conditions hold steady, spring wheat ratings dive again

USDA rated 65% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent” (G/E) as of July 18, unchanged from the week prior and a point lower than analysts expected. The amount of crop rated “excellent” did edge a point higher to 15%. But the amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP) also climbed a point to 9%. Rains across the Corn Belt were enough to stabilize ratings, with concerns about overly dry conditions in the far northwest Corn Belt lingering.

Crop development advanced rapidly over the past week, with 56% of the crop estimated to be silking as of Sunday, a 30-point advance from last week and now four percentage points ahead of the five-year average versus four points behind last week. USDA reports 8% of the crop is in dough stage, roughly in line with 7% on average.

Soybean condition ratings, as expected

Analysts polled by Reuters were correct in their forecast for USDA to raise the amount of crop rated G/E a percentage point to 60% as of July 18. The amount of crop rated the P/VP categories held steady at 11%.

As of Sunday, 63% of the crop was blooming and 23% of it was setting pods, six and two percentage points ahead of the five-year averages for this date, respectively.

Spring wheat ratings dive again, as hot, dry weather bakes crop

USDA’s spring wheat condition rating once again fell well short of analysts’ expectations, with USDA dropping its rating five percentage points to 11% G/E. Analysts expected just a one-point drop on average, despite another week without rainfall and temperatures topping 100 degrees F. Also of note, USDA’s P/VP rating for the crop surged eight percentage points to 63%. USDA reports just 11% of top-producing North Dakota’s crop is G/E, with 64% of the crop rated P/VP.

Ninety-two percent of the crop was headed as of Sunday, which is in line with the five-year average.

Winter wheat harvest pace in line with the norm after a big week-to-week gain

Winter wheat harvest advanced 14 percentage points over the past week to 73% complete, just a point shy of the five-year average pace and in line with year-ago. USDA reports Kansas producers have collected 96% of their crop, right in line with the average for this point in the season.

Big week-to-week improvement in cotton ratings

Rains for West Texas have bolstered crop prospects and helped lift the amount of crop USDA rates G/E by four percentage points to 60%. That’s a relatively high rating and a dramatic improvement from 47% G/E last year at this time.

Recent wet weather has cotton development lagging the norm. USDA reports 69% of it is squaring and 23% is setting bolls. That compares to 73% squaring and 30% setting bolls on average for this point in the season. But long-term weather maps signal a warm fall is likely ahead, limiting concerns about any development lag.