Condition ratings disappoint for corn, soybeans and especially spring wheat

Corn condition ratings continue to slide

Corn condition ratings moved in the opposite direction traders were anticipating, dropping one percentage point to 64% “good” to “excellent” (G/E). On average, analysts polled by Reuters had expected a one-point rise. The amount of top-rated crop is now nine points under year-ago. Also of note, the amount of corn rated “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP) climbed two percentage points the week ending June 27 to 8%.

Continued drying in northern and western regions of the Midwest paired with an excess of rain in some southern and eastern states resulted in an ongoing slide in ratings. Of note, condition ratings did improve in top-producing Iowa and Illinois, but they dropped sharply in Minnesota.

Four percent of the U.S. corn crop was silking as of Sunday, which lags the five-year average by two percentage points.

Soybean condition rating holds steady; analysts had expected a one-point rise

USDA once again rated 60% of the U.S. soybean crop G/E, though that did mask a one-point uptick in the amount of crop USDA rates “excellent.” Analysts on average had expected a one-point increase in USDA’s G/E rating. The department continues to rate 9% of the crop P/VP.

As of Sunday, USDA reports 96% of the U.S. soybean crop had emerged (92% on average) and 14% of it is blooming (11% on average).

Steady G/E rating for cotton

USDA continues to rate 52% of the U.S. cotton crop G/E, steady with its assessment last week and well ahead of 41% G/E last year at this time. Much of top-producing Texas is free of drought, which has lifted crop prospects. The amount of crop rated P/VP did inch a point higher to 7%, but that’s well shy of last year when 24% of the crop fell in the bottom two categories.

Thirty-two percent of the U.S. cotton crop was squaring as of Sunday and 7% of it was setting bolls, which compares to 34% and 8% for the respective five-year averages. Texas has 10% of its cotton crop setting bolls, in line with the average. Georgia has 4% of the crop setting bolls, just behind the five-year average of 6% at this point in the season.

Another dive for drought-stricken spring wheat crop

After another dry weak for spring wheat country, analysts expected a decline in condition ratings, but the two-point dip they expected was well short of the seven-point dive USDA reported. It now rates just 20% of the crop G/E, nearing the 1988 low. Also of note, the amount of crop rated P/VP climbed another two percentage points to 39%. Of note, just 21% of top-producing North Dakota’s crop is rated G/E.

Winter wheat harvest pace nearly doubles

Winter wheat harvest nearly doubled over the past week to 33% complete, which was a bit more advanced than the 30% harvested tally analysts surveyed by Reuters expected on average. Progress still lags the five-year average by seven percentage points, however. USDA lowered the amount of winter wheat rated G/E a percentage point to 48%, but traders are more focused on harvest progress.