Brazil’s USDA-equivalent Conab dropped its estimate for Brazil’s total corn crop more than 3 MMT to 93.39 MMT, which is well (9.0%) under last year’s 102.59-MMT crop. The statistics agency sliced its safrinha corn crop estimate to 66.97 MMT as drought and frost have taken a toll on the late-planted crop. Conab still expects Brazil to export 29.5 MMT of the grain this season, with imports of corn projected at 2.3 MMT.
Analysts polled by Reuters on average expect USDA to lower its Brazilian corn crop estimate from 98.5 MMT to 92.21 MMT next week, but the range of expectations is wide, spanning more than 9 MMT.
Conab now estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 135.91 MMT, a slight 51,000-MT increase from its June forecast and up 8.9% from last year’s crop. Brazil will likely export 86.69 MMT of those soybeans, according to Conab, an increase of nearly 700,000 MT from its forecast last month.
USDA in June estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 137 MMT. They expect the department to pare its production estimate to 136.76 MMT next week.
Brazil’s wheat crop will likely total 8.48 MMT this season, which would be a 36% surge from last year’s crop. In June, Conab pegged Brazil’s 2021 wheat crop at 6.94 MMT.
Conab stayed the course with its Brazilian cotton crop projection of 2.34 MMT, which would be a 22.0% retreat from last year’s 3.00-MMT crop.