Cattle on Feed Report: Placements don’t drop as much as expected

The report data is mildly negative compared with pre-report expectations, especially placements. But the report is not bearish.

Cattle on Feed Report
Cattle on Feed Report
(Pro Farmer)

USDA estimated there were 11.612 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of April 1, down 533,000 head (4.4%) from year-ago but 112,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. That was the smallest April 1 inventory since 2017. March placements declined 0.6% from last year, whereas traders anticipated a 5.2% drop. Marketings came in a little lighter than expected at 1.2% below March 2022.

Cattle on Feed Report

USDA
(% of year-ago)

Average Estimate

(% of year-ago)

On Feed on April 1

95.6

95.0

Placements in March

99.4

94.8

Marketings in March

98.8

99.1

Placements declined in Kansas (-30,000 head) and Colorado (-15,000 head), while they increased in Texas (20,000 head) and “other states” (12,000 head). Nebraska placed the same number of cattle into feedlots during March as last year. The smaller-than-expected decrease in placements appeared to be the product of strong prices more than drought-related, though that was likely a factor.

Placements rose 2.6% for lightweights (under 600 lbs.) and 0.9% for 7-weights. Placements declined 6.1% for 6-weights, 0.6% for 8-weights and 2.8% for 9-weights. Heavyweight (1,000-plus lbs.) placements were steady with year-ago.

As of April 1, there were 7.117 million head of steers in feedlots, down 453,000 head (6.0%) from last year. Heifers in feedlots totaled 4.495 million head, down 80,000 head (1.7%).

The report data is mildly negative compared with pre-report expectations, especially placements, which could weigh on deferred live cattle futures on Monday. But the report is not bearish as it showed a tightening feedlot inventory, with this marking the seventh straight month of year-over-year declines.