USDA estimated there were 11.612 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of April 1, down 533,000 head (4.4%) from year-ago but 112,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. That was the smallest April 1 inventory since 2017. March placements declined 0.6% from last year, whereas traders anticipated a 5.2% drop. Marketings came in a little lighter than expected at 1.2% below March 2022.
Cattle on Feed Report | USDA | Average Estimate (% of year-ago) |
On Feed on April 1 | 95.6 | 95.0 |
Placements in March | 99.4 | 94.8 |
Marketings in March | 98.8 | 99.1 |
Placements declined in Kansas (-30,000 head) and Colorado (-15,000 head), while they increased in Texas (20,000 head) and “other states” (12,000 head). Nebraska placed the same number of cattle into feedlots during March as last year. The smaller-than-expected decrease in placements appeared to be the product of strong prices more than drought-related, though that was likely a factor.
Placements rose 2.6% for lightweights (under 600 lbs.) and 0.9% for 7-weights. Placements declined 6.1% for 6-weights, 0.6% for 8-weights and 2.8% for 9-weights. Heavyweight (1,000-plus lbs.) placements were steady with year-ago.
As of April 1, there were 7.117 million head of steers in feedlots, down 453,000 head (6.0%) from last year. Heifers in feedlots totaled 4.495 million head, down 80,000 head (1.7%).
The report data is mildly negative compared with pre-report expectations, especially placements, which could weigh on deferred live cattle futures on Monday. But the report is not bearish as it showed a tightening feedlot inventory, with this marking the seventh straight month of year-over-year declines.