Cattle on Feed Report neutral compared to expectations

From an underlying standpoint, the data is bullish as feedlot supplies declined from year-ago for a fourth straight month.

Feedlot
Feedlot
(Shelby chesnut)

USDA estimated there were 11.682 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Jan. 1, down 355,000 head (2.9%) from year-ago but 30,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. December placements dropped 8.0% from year-ago, while marketings declined 6.1%.

Cattle on Feed Report

USDA
(% of year-ago)

Average Estimate

(% of year-ago)

On Feed on Jan. 1

97.1

96.8

Placements in December

92.0

91.0

Marketings in December

93.9

94.7

Placements declined in all categories except 9-weights, which were steady with year-ago. Placements fell 10.8% for lightweights (under 600 lbs.), 7.4% for 6-weights, 7.8% for 7-weights, 7.9% for 8-weights and 5.3% for heavyweights (1,000-plus lbs.) versus year-earlier levels. Placements dropped sharply in Texas (95,000 head), Nebraska (35,000 head), Colorado (20,000 head) and Kansas (10,000 head), while they increased 4,000 head in “other states.”

The Jan. 1 feedlot supply consisted of 7.032 million steers (60.2%) and 4.650 million heifers (39.8%). The steer population fell 330,000 head (4.5%), while heifer numbers declined 25,000 head (0.5%) from year-earlier levels.

All three categories were a little on the negative side of the average pre-report estimates, but not enough to move the market. This data is neutral compared to expectations and bullish from an underlying standpoint, with feedlot supplies falling from year-ago levels for a fourth straight month.