USDA estimated there were 11.449 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of Oct. 1, down 101,000 head (0.9%) from year-ago and right in line with traders’ expectations. This marked the first year-over-year decline in feedlot numbers since December 2021. Placements dropped 0.8% in September, which was 0.2 point more than anticipated, while marketing rose 4.0% as expected.
Cattle on Feed Report | USDA | Average Estimate (% of year-ago) |
On Feed on Oct. 1 | 99.1 | 99.1 |
Placements in Sept. | 96.2 | 96.4 |
Marketings in Sept. | 104.0 | 104.0 |
Compared to year-ago, placements declined 60,000 head in Kansas, 40,000 head in Texas, 10,000 head in Colorado and 18,000 head in “other states,” while Nebraska increased placements by 45,000 head.
Placements declined 8.3% for 6-weights, 11.1% for 7-weights, 3.6% for 8-weights and 5.0% for heavyweights (1,000-plus lbs.). Placements increased 2.3% for lightweights (under 600 lbs.) and 5.5% for 9-weights.
The number of steers in feedlots declined 166,000 head (2.3%) from year-ago, while heifers increased 65,000 head (1.4%).
With all three categories virtually in line with the pre-report estimates, the data is fully neutral and will have no impact on prices. However, declining feedlot inventories paint a bullish picture for both cattle futures and the cash cattle market into 2023.