USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 74.512 million head as of March 1, down 179,000 head (0.2%) from year-ago, whereas traders expected a 1.2% increase. The breeding herd at 5.980 million head declined 0.6%. The market hog inventory at 68.532 million head dropped 144,000 head (0.2%).
| Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA (% of year-ago) | Average estimate (% of year-ago) |
| All hogs on March 1 | 99.8 | 101.2 |
| Kept for breeding | 99.4 | 100.2 |
| Kept for marketing | 99.8 | 101.1 |
| Market hog inventory | ||
| under 50 lbs. | 99.7 | 101.7 |
| 50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.6 | 101.8 |
| 120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 99.7 | 100.6 |
| Over 180 lbs. | 100.5 | 100.6 |
| Pig crop (Dec.-Feb.) | 99.8 | 101.8 |
| Pigs per litter (Dec.-Feb.) | 101.0 | 101.7 |
| Farrowings (Dec.-Feb.) | 98.7 | 100.0 |
| Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 99.8 | 101.3 |
| Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) | 99.2 | 100.5 |
The winter pig crop declined 55,000 head (0.2%), as a 1.3% drop in farrowings was only partially offset by a record 11.65 pigs saved per litter, up 1.0% from year-ago.
Looking forward, producers intend to farrow slightly fewer sows during spring (-0.2%) and summer (-0.8%). But if pigs per litter continue to run at a record clip, that could end up in pig crops close to or above year-ago levels.
Based on the market hog inventory, slaughter will run fractionally below year-ago through spring and early summer.
Given that every category in the report was below the average pre-report estimates, the
data is bullish, especially with unexpected contraction.