Traders anticipate USDA will continue to raise its corn and soybean crop estimates in the Nov. 9 Crop Production Report. That is expected to increase the 2021-22 bean ending stocks projection. But traders see corn carryover declining a little, as ethanol use is likely to rise. The report is expected to show little if any change to U.S. wheat ending stocks.
Following are report expectations based on Reuters surveys (Bloomberg for cotton).
Expectations for 2021 | ||
Corn | ||
Production | Yield | |
Average est. | 15.050 | 176.9 |
Range | 14.957-15.148 | 175.9-178.0 |
USDA Oct. est. | 15.019 | 176.5 |
Soybeans | ||
| Production | Yield |
Average est. | 4.484 | 51.9 |
Range | 4.442-4.536 | 51.5-52.5 |
USDA Oct. est. | 4.448 | 51.5 |
Cotton | ||
Production | Yield | |
Average est. | 18.04 | NA |
Range | 17.75-18.50 | NA |
USDA Oct. est. | 18.00 | 871 |
Expectations for | |
Corn – billion bushels | |
2021-22 | |
Average est. | 1.480 |
Range | 1.355-1.576 |
USDA October | 1.500 |
Soybeans – million bushels | |
2021-22 | |
Average est. | 362 |
Range | 310-449 |
USDA October | 320 |
| |
Wheat – million bushels | |
2021-22 | |
Average est. | 581 |
Range | 565-607 |
USDA October | 580 |
| |
Cotton – million bales | |
2021-22 | |
USDA | 3.16 |
Average est. | 2.90-3.50 |
USDA October | 3.20 |
On the global front, traders expect corn and soybean ending stocks projections for 2021-22 to decline slightly from last month. World wheat and cotton ending stocks are expected to increased modestly.
Expectations for | |
Corn – MMT | |
| 2021-22 |
Average est. | 300.82 |
Range | 294.00-303.90 |
USDA October | 301.74 |
Soybeans – MMT | |
| 2021-22 |
Average est. | 105.48 |
Range | 103.90-106.90 |
USDA October | 104.57 |
Wheat – MMT | |
| 2021-22 |
Average est. | 276.50 |
Range | 274.00-282.00 |
USDA October | 277.18 |
Cotton – million bales | |
| 2021-22 |
Average est. | 87.08 |
Range | 86.13-88.38 |
USDA October | 87.13 |