Bigger corn, soybean crop estimates expected Nov. 9

The bigger crop estimate is expected to increase the 2021-22 bean ending stocks projection. But traders see corn carryover declining a little, as ethanol use is likely to rise.

usda
usda
(USDA)

Traders anticipate USDA will continue to raise its corn and soybean crop estimates in the Nov. 9 Crop Production Report. That is expected to increase the 2021-22 bean ending stocks projection. But traders see corn carryover declining a little, as ethanol use is likely to rise. The report is expected to show little if any change to U.S. wheat ending stocks.

Following are report expectations based on Reuters surveys (Bloomberg for cotton).

Expectations for 2021
U.S. Production

Corn

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

15.050

176.9

Range

14.957-15.148

175.9-178.0

USDA Oct. est.

15.019

176.5

Soybeans

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Average est.

4.484

51.9

Range

4.442-4.536

51.5-52.5

USDA Oct. est.

4.448

51.5

Cotton

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Average est.

18.04

NA

Range

17.75-18.50

NA

USDA Oct. est.

18.00

871

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

Average est.

1.480

Range

1.355-1.576

USDA October

1.500

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

362

Range

310-449

USDA October

320

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

581

Range

565-607

USDA October

580

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

USDA

3.16

Average est.

2.90-3.50

USDA October

3.20

On the global front, traders expect corn and soybean ending stocks projections for 2021-22 to decline slightly from last month. World wheat and cotton ending stocks are expected to increased modestly.

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

300.82

Range

294.00-303.90

USDA October

301.74

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

105.48

Range

103.90-106.90

USDA October

104.57

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

276.50

Range

274.00-282.00

USDA October

277.18

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

Average est.

87.08

Range

86.13-88.38

USDA October

87.13