With that much data, there are likely to be some surprises, and the markets have a history of big price moves following the barrage of January data. Quarterly grain stocks have been particularly difficult for analysts to peg, especially for corn. The following estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for 2022 | |||
Corn | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 13.933 | 172.5 | 80.763 |
Range | 13.849 - 14.005 | 171.4 – 173.8 | 80.500 – 81.100 |
USDA November | 13.930 | 172.3 | 80.844 |
Soybeans | |||
| Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) |
Average est. | 4.362 | 50.3 | 86.621 |
Range | 4.321 - 4.436 | 49.9 – 50.8 | 86.300 – 87.000 |
USDA November | 4.346 | 50.2 | 86.631 |
Cotton | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 14.140 | NA | NA |
Range | 13.840 – 14.320 | NA | NA |
USDA December | 14.242 | 868 | 7.876 |
Expectations for | |
Corn – billion bu. | |
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2022 | 11.153 |
Range | 10.737 – 11.937 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2022 | 1.377 |
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 | 11.642 |
| |
Soybeans – billion bu. | |
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2022 | 3.132 |
Range | 3.000 – 3.220 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2022 | 0.274 |
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 | 3.152 |
| |
Wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. for Dec. 1, 2022 | 1.344 |
Range | 1.295 – 1.429 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2022 | 1.776 |
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 | 1.378 |
Expectations for | |
All winter wheat – million acres | |
Average est. | 34.485 |
Range | 33.380 – 36.200 |
USDA final 2022 | 33.271 |
| |
HRW wheat – million acres | |
Average est. | 23.824 |
Range | 22.100 – 25.000 |
USDA final 2022 | 23.083 |
| |
SRW wheat – million acres | |
Average est. | 6.890 |
Range | 6.500 – 7.500 |
USDA final 2022 | 6.570 |
| |
White winter wheat – million acres | |
Average est. | 3.631 |
Range | 3.500 – 3.800 |
USDA final 2022 | 3.618 |
Expectations for | |
Corn – billion bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.314 |
Range | 1.181 – 1.405 |
USDA December | 1.257 |
USDA 2021-22 | 1.377 |
Soybeans – million bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 236 |
Range | 205 - 289 |
USDA December | 220 |
USDA 2021-22 | 274 |
| |
Wheat – million bushels | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 580 |
Range | 556 - 601 |
USDA December | 571 |
USDA 2021-22 | 600 |
| |
Cotton – million bales | |
2022-23 | |
Average est. | 3.50 |
Range | 3.10 – 3.82 |
USDA December | 3.50 |
USDA 2021-22 | 3.75 |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 297.86 |
Range | NA | 292.50 – 300.30 |
USDA December | 307.09 | 298.40 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 101.69 |
Range | NA | 99.10 – 104.40 |
USDA December | 95.59 | 102.71 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 268.02 |
Range | NA | 265.40 – 270.50 |
USDA December | 276.31 | 267.33 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 89.46 |
Range | NA | 88.50 – 90.53 |
USDA December | 85.44 | 89.56 |