Friday will be one of the biggest report days of the year for the grain markets as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. Much of the focus will be on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans. But Dec. 1 grain stocks have a history of providing market-moving surprises, especially for corn. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
| Expectations for U.S. Corn, Soybean and Cotton Production |
| Corn |
| Production (bil. bu.) | Yield(bu. per acre) |
| Average est. | 15.095 | 182.7 |
| Range | 14.965 – 15.193 | 181.3 – 183.7 |
| USDA November | 15.143 | 183.1 |
|
| Soybeans |
| Production (bil. bu.) | Yield(bu. per acre) |
| Average est. | 4.453 | 51.6 |
| Range | 4.408 – 4.539 | 51.1 – 52.6 |
| USDA November | 4.461 | 51.7 |
|
| Cotton |
| Production (mil. bales) | Yield(lbs. per acre) |
| Average est. | 14.16 | NA |
| Range | 14.00 – 14.26 | NA |
| USDA December | 14.255 | 92 |
| Expectations for Quarterly Grain Stocks Report |
| Corn – billion bu. |
| Average est. for Dec. 1, 2024 | 12.147 |
| Range | 11.912 – 12.320 |
| USDA Sept. 1, 2024 | 1.760 |
| USDA Dec. 1, 2023 | 12.171 |
| |
| Soybeans – billion bu. |
| Average est. for Dec. 1, 2024 | 3.231 |
| Range | 3.040 – 3.587 |
| USDA Sept. 1, 2024 | 0.342 |
| USDA Dec. 1, 2023 | 3.001 |
| |
| Wheat – billion bu. |
| Average est. for Dec. 1, 2024 | 1.565 |
| Range | 1.460 – 1.610 |
| USDA Sept. 1, 2024 | 1.986 |
| USDA Dec. 1, 2023 | 1.421 |
| Expectations for Winter Wheat Seedings |
| All winter wheat – million acres |
| Average est. | 33.366 |
| Range | 32.500 – 34.380 |
| USDA final 2024 | 33.390 |
|
| HRW wheat – million acres |
| Average est. | 23.733 |
| Range | 23.174 – 24.480 |
| USDA final 2024 | 23.787 |
|
| SRW wheat – million acres |
| Average est. | 6.141 |
| Range | 5.760 – 6.667 |
| USDA final 2024 | 6.062 |
|
| White winter wheat – million acres |
| Average est. | 3.496 |
| Range | 3.250 – 3.620 |
| USDA final 2024 | 3.541 |
| Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
| Corn – billion bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 1.675 |
| Range | NA | 1.540 – 1.815 |
| USDA December | 1.760 | 1.738 |
|
|
| Soybeans – million bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 457 |
| Range | NA | 390 – 495 |
| USDA December | 342 | 470 |
|
| Wheat – million bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 799 |
| Range | NA | 785 – 825 |
| USDA December | 696 | 795 |
|
| Cotton – million bales | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 4.28 |
| Range | NA | 3.90 – 4.55 |
| USDA December | 3.15 | 4.40 |
| Expectations for Global Carryover |
| Corn – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 294.80 |
| Range | NA | 290.50 – 297.07 |
| USDA December | 316.22 | 296.44 |
| |
| Soybeans – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 132.20 |
| Range | NA | 130.00 – 134.00 |
| USDA December | 112.16 | 131.87 |
| |
| Wheat – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 257.86 |
| Range | NA | 256.00 – 259.00 |
| USDA December | 267.41 | 257.88 |
| |
| Cotton – million bales |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 75.90 |
| Range | NA | 75.50 – 76.10 |
| USDA December | 74.16 | 76.02 |
