GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 8 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grain futures reversed Friday’s price action during the overnight session, with corn and soybeans weaker and wheat firmer. We expect similar trade to open today’s session as traders prepare for USDA’s reports later this morning. The U.S. dollar index is mildly firmer and crude oil futures are modestly lower.
USDA reported daily soybean sales of 116,000 MT to China for 2024-25.
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at 11:00 a.m. CT will set final 2023-24 ending stocks for corn and soybeans. The report has a history of surprises, especially for corn, with analysts routinely missing those estimates by a wide margin. USDA will also issue its final estimates for 2024 wheat production. For Sept. 1 stocks, analysts expect 1.844 billion bu. for corn, 351 million bu. for soybeans and 1.973 billion bu. for wheat. All-wheat production is expected at 1.966 billion bu., down from the August estimate of 1.982 billion bushels.
The full extent of Helene’s impact on U.S. cotton production and other crops is still being assessed, but reports note the hurricane caused significant crop damage and disrupted harvesting operations in key cotton-producing states. Remnants of Helene also moved through the lower Midwest and a part of the Tennessee River Basin. However, markets remained cautious, waiting for more concrete data on the extent of the damage. Mostly dry conditions are expected across the Plains and Corn Belt for the next week to 10 days.
A potential strike looms at East Coast and Gulf of Mexico ports starting Oct. 1 if no deal is reached between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). President Joe Biden said Sunday he wouldn’t intervene in any dockworkers strike.
Grain terminal workers at Canada’s Port of Vancouver ended a four-day strike that disrupted grain exports during the critical harvest season, following a tentative agreement. Meanwhile, longshoremen at the Port of Montréal are set to begin a three-day strike today, potentially disrupting cargo shipments at one of Canada’s busiest seaports.
Brazil’s soybean planting remained limited by heat and dryness through central production areas, reaching 2% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was behind 5.2% planted on that date last year. First crop corn planting reached 30% done, just behind last year’s 32% pace, as soil moisture is much better in southern Brazil.
CORN: December corn futures remain in a choppy-to-higher pattern on the daily chart. Resistance starts at last Friday’s high of $4.19 3/4 and extends to $4.23 3/4. Short-term moving averages place support in the $4.15 to $4.10 area.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures remain in the uptrend from the August low. Near-term resistance stands at last Friday’s high at $10.69 1/2 and extends to $10.86 3/4. Support is at the 5-day moving average at $10.52 1/2 and then the 10-day average at $10.34 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures remain in the recent sideways pattern outlined by support at $5.64 and resistance at $5.98 3/4. A breakout from this range would likely trigger the next trending move.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy.
HOGS: Choppy.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mixed tone this morning. Cattle futures pulled back from gains earlier in the week on Friday, finishing near session lows. That could trigger some seller interest on the open, though the downside should be limited by strength in the cash market. Cash cattle traded higher for a third straight time last week, though traders will have to wait until later this morning to get the official price. Cash opinions are uncertain to open this week, with some looking for higher prices again, while others feel recent hefty purchases by packers, negative margins and a fresh supply of contracted cattle will halt gains. Wholesale beef prices were mixed Friday, with Choice up 32 cents to $296.69 and Select down 29 cents to $282.08. Movement totaled 96 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone in choppy trade. October lean hog futures continue to chop sideways as the cash index modestly favors the downside. The CME lean hog index is down 4 cents to $84.03 as of Sept. 26, ending a one-day uptick and marking a new seasonal low. The pork cutout value firmed $1.11 to $95.75 on Friday, as strong gains in loins, butts, picnics and ribs more than offset modest declines in hams and bellies.