GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 7 to 11 cents lower; spring wheat 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat faced followthrough selling during overnight trade. Soybeans recouped a portion of Thursday’s losses, though buyer interest faded at the end of the session. The U.S. dollar index is more than 600 points higher following the stronger-than-expected jobs data this morning. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly firmer.
USDA reported daily soybean sales of 116,000 MT to China and corn sales of 198,000 MT to unknown destinations – both for 2024-25.
After three days, the East Coast and Gulf port strike halted with a tentative agreement until Jan. 15, 2025. The strike’s end will allow for the reopening of 36 affected ports, including major hubs like New York, Baltimore and Houston. The backlog of around 60 ships at ports now needs to be cleared. Ahead of the work stoppage, most indicated it would take around five days to clear any shipping backlog created by one day of the strike.
ENSO-neutral conditions remain in place. NOAA’s model continues to suggest La Nina is evolving while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests neutral ENSO conditions will continue. World Weather Inc. agrees with the Australian forecast.
Brazil is still expecting rain in its center-west and center-south crop areas Wednesday through Friday of next week followed by more limited rain during next weekend and then scattered showers increasing again during the week of Oct. 14. Argentina rainfall will be mostly in the north and a few west-central crop areas early next week with some potential for follow up rain in parts of the central and south in the following weekend after a few days of drier weather.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index rose 3.0% from August, as all five components increased, led by a 10.4% jump in sugar. The September index rose 2.1% from last year to the highest level since July 2023.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects recent Chinese stimulus measures will likely fuel only short-term support for ag prices and industrial metals. BMI argues that a sustained long-term upward trend in industrial metal prices is unlikely to materialize until there’s “a turning point in the Chinese property sector. BMI does not expect the stimulus to provide either sustainable support to ag prices within China or long-lived momentum to international grain prices, with other factors set to continue shaping sentiment.
The U.S. economy added a stronger-than-expected 254,000 non-farm payrolls in September, up sharply from the revised figure of 159,000 for August and the most since May. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates 25 basis points in November.
CORN: December corn futures dropped below the 5-day moving average overnight, potentially signaling a short-term top. Next support is the 10-day average around $4.21. This week’s high at $4.34 1/4 stands as solid near-term resistance.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures remain near the middle of the short-term consolidation pattern outlined by Monday’s high at $10.69 3/4 and the Sept. 25 low at $10.31 1/4. While the short-term pattern is sideways, the uptrend from the August low remains intact.
WHEAT: December SRW futures dropped below the 5-day moving average and the psychological $6.00 mark overnight, hinting at a short-term top. Support is at the 10-day moving average near $5.91. This week’s double-top at $6.17 1/4 stands as solid near-term resistance.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a choppy tone after a corrective pullback on Thursday. Traders are still waiting on active cash cattle trade to develop. Cash trade so far this week was too light for a true market test and cash negotiations remained stalled. Feedlots were still hopeful of getting higher prices for a fourth consecutive week while packers remained reluctant to raise bids amid negative margins. Wholesale beef prices slipped Thursday, with Choice down a penny to $299.80 and Select 64 cents lower to $283.29. Movement stayed strong at 146 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly firmer on support from the firming cash market. The CME lean hog index is up 45 cents to $84.90 as of Oct. 2, the third straight daily gain and the largest singular increase since late July. October lean hog futures finished Thursday 72.5 cents below today’s cash quote, while December hogs held an $8.50 discount. The pork cutout slipped 22 cents to $94.80, as losses in loins, butts and bellies more than offset gains in the other cuts. Movement totaled 284.1 loads.