GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans sharply extended losses late overnight trade, finishing near their session lows. That weighed on corn and wheat, which also finished low range overnight. We expect that price pressure to carry through to the start of daytime trade. Outside markets are mixed with both the U.S. dollar index and front-month crude oil futures notably higher.
The strike at East Coast and Gulf ports is into its third day. President Joe Biden called on U.S. port employers to resume negotiations with striking dock workers, warning the strike along the East Coast and Gulf could exacerbate the economic fallout from Hurricane Helene. Biden criticized port employers for delaying talks, calling for a swift resolution to avoid further economic disruption.
Union Pacific Corp said Ferromex, the Mexican railroad it interchanges with, has resumed issuing permits for grain shuttle trains at the U.S./Mexico border crossing at Eagle Pass, Texas. Earlier this week, BNSF Railway said it had resumed issuing permits for grain shuttles heading to Mexico.
Tensions in the Middle East are rising. President Biden called on Israel to avoid attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to recent missile strikes, as the G7 seeks to prevent further escalation in the region. World leaders are concerned that, should Israel strike key Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries.
Export sales for the week ended Sept. 26:
Corn: Net sales of 1.684 MMT for 2024-25 easily topped analysts’ expectations of 600,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Exports totaled 1.170 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.444 MMT for 2024-25 were within the expected range from 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT. China accounted for roughly half of the total at 725,700 MT. Exports totaled 724,600 MT, with 199,900 MT shipped to China.
Wheat: Net sales of 443,700 MT for 2024-25 topped expectations ranging from 150,000 to 400,000 MT. Exports totaled 531,700 MT.
CORN: December corn futures are strengthening technically as the rally from the August low builds. The contract has completed a 38.2% retracement of the price drop from the May high to the August low. Bulls’ next target is a 50% retracement near $4.41, followed by the 200-day moving average at $4.52. The 5-day moving average near $4.27 is near-term support.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures retraced 38.2 of the price drop from the May high to the August low but have struggled to find fresh buying above that level around $10.60. Near-term resistance is at Monday’s high of $10.69 3/4. Near-term support is in the $10.42 to $10.27 range.
WHEAT: December SRW futures completed a 38.2% retracement of the sharp price drop from the May high to the August low. Near-term resistance stands at the 200-day moving average near $6.16. There isn’t much chart resistance from that level to the 50% retracement around $6.40. Near-term support is at the psychological $6.00 mark and the 5-day moving average at $5.98.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on followthrough buying after strong gains and high-range closes on Wednesday. But with futures short-term overbought, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market pull back in corrective trade. Cash sources were generally expecting mostly steady cash cattle prices this week. But the surge in futures on Wednesday has some now anticipating firmer cash prices again, despite negative cutting margins and ideas packers are well supplied after recent active purchases. Wholesale beef prices fell on Wednesday, with Choice down 36 cents to $299.82 and Select $1.37 lower to $283.93. USDA reported net beef export sales of 22,500 MT for 2024, up sharply from week-ago and 68% above the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on followthrough buying after moderate to strong gains and high-range closes yesterday and a firming cash market. But futures are mildly short-term overbought, which could limit buyer interest. The CME lean hog index is up 32 cents to $84.45 as of Oct. 1. After strong gains again yesterday, October lean hog futures finished at a rare 22.5-cent premium to today’s cash quote. The discount in December hogs declined to $7.70, which is nearly $5.00 less than the five-year average drop from the beginning of October until mid-December when the contract is settled against the index. Pork cutout fell $1.29 to $95.02 on Wednesday. USDA reported net pork export sales of 43,400 MT for 2024, up 55% from the previous week and 61% above the four-week average.