GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 8 to 12 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans faced followthrough selling pressure throughout overnight trade and finished near the session low. Corn futures were choppy with a downside bias. Wheat traded higher, though buyer interest faded late in the overnight session. Outside markets are negative for grains today with the U.S. dollar index up around 400 points and front-month crude oil futures about $1.00 lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 195,000 MT of corn and 120,000 MT of soybeans – both to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
Dockworkers across 36 major ports on the U.S. East and Gulf coasts have gone on strike for the first time in nearly five decades, disrupting half of the nation’s trade volumes. President Joe Biden has not invoked national security laws to force workers back to the docks. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said that last week that most of the effect for agriculture would be on imports, especially higher-value items from Europe. While grain and other bulk exports would not be affected, containerized shipments of agricultural products would be impacted. Meat and especially poultry exports will be highly affected.
BNSF Railway will resume issuing permits for grain shuttles heading to Mexico today. Some permit requests still may not be fulfilled and BNSF is monitoring the situation, the company said. Union Pacific also has stopped issuing permits for grain shuttle trains to Mexico.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his U.S. soybean yield forecast another 0.5 bu. to 51.5 bu. per acre, noting continued dryness in the central and western Corn Belt and potential for crop damage due to Hurricane Helene. That reduced his soybean production estimate to 4.44 billion bushels. Cordonnier kept his corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu., respectively.
USDA rated 64% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop inched up 0.1 point to 366.1, while the soybean crop improved 1.4 points to 359.9. The CCI ratings ae 25.3 points (7.4%) above year-ago for corn and 23.4 points (6.9%) higher for soybeans. Click here for details.
CORN: December corn futures scored an upside breakout on Monday, reaching the highest level since late June. Monday’s high of $4.27 3/4 stands as near-term resistance. Near-term support is in a band from $4.19 to $4.14, representing the 5- and 10-day moving averages.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures remain in the uptrend from the August low. Near-term resistance is marked by Monday’s high at $10.69 3/4. Support is in a band from the 10-day moving average at $10.38 1/2 to the 20-day average at $10.23 3/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to trade in a short-term sideways pattern outlined by support at $5.64 and resistance at the September high of $5.98 3/4. Price action will remain choppy until there’s a breakout from the range.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone after finishing near session highs on Monday and amid support from firming cash fundamentals. The average cash cattle price firmed $2.14 last week to $186.15, the third straight weekly gain. Cash sources note packers are better positioned on near-term slaughter needs, which could lead to less aggressive bidding in the cash market, though feedlots have little incentive to move cattle at lower prices. Wholesale beef prices firmed $1.39 for Choice to $298.08 on Monday, while Select rose $2.45 to $284.53. Movement totaled 102 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone in choppy trade as cash fundamentals pause. The CME lean hog index is down 2 cents to $84.01 as of Sept. 27. October lean hog futures finished Monday at a $1.76 discount to today’s cash quote, signaling traders anticipate the cash index will continue to slide into mid-October. The pork cutout firmed 9 cents to $95.84 on Monday as gains in bellies, ribs and loins slightly more than offset losses in the other cuts. Movement totaled 250.4 loads for the day.