GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 6 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: 4 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat firmed overnight, though wheat finished well off session highs. It’s been a struggle for bulls to maintain overnight price gains in the wheat market during daytime trade the past three days, so that will be something to monitor to close the week. Outside markets are mixed, with the U.S. dollar index around 250 points higher but commodities showing general strength.
World Weather Inc says conditions will allow fieldwork to advance across areas of the Corn Belt during the weekend a little wetter again next week. HRW areas from southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle will remain dry over the next 10 days.
In Brazil, Mato Grosso do Sul and portions of Mato Grosso will get a few showers, with more significant rain during the second half of next week. Rio Grande do Sull will get another round of significant rain briefly next week, rekindling flooding in some areas of the state.
Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan will have a drier bias over the next 10 days to two weeks.
The Wheat Quality Council HRW tour estimated the Kansas wheat yield at 46.5 bu. per acre, the highest since 2021 and above the five-year average (2018-23; no tour in 2020) of 42.4 bu. per acre. Crop quality varied drastically across the state, with wheat in the drier south-central and southwestern portions of Kansas in the poorest condition. Other areas had green, lush fields. Scouts noted stripe rust in some areas of the state. Tour scouts guesstimated the Kansas wheat crop at 290.4 million bushels.
Biofuels firms are pouring more than $1 billion into building China’s first plants to turn waste cooking oil into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Once online, the projects would use supplies of used cooking oil (UCO) that China currently exports, much of which goes to the United States.
CORN: July corn futures are trading in the lower end of the two-week trading range. Support starts at Thursday’s low of $4.56 and extends to the May 6 and May 9 double-bottom at $4.54 1/4. Resistance is layered from $4.60 to the May 13-14 double-top at $4.75 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures got within 2 1/4 cents of this week’s high of $12.32 1/4 overnight before easing a little. That level stands as near-term resistance. Near-term support extends from the 5-day moving average at $12.17 1/2 to this week’s low at $12.03 1/2.
WHEAT: July SRW futures have retraced 23.6% of the rally from the April low. Increased volatility and bigger daily price ranges recently suggest the upside may be exhausted without fresh bullish news. Near-term support starts at the 10-day moving average of $6.58 and extends to a 38.2% retracement around $6.41.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Firmer.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone amid wholesale beef strength and improving technicals. But futures have struggled to hold onto all of their intra-day gains, so a light profit-taking ahead of the weekend wouldn’t surprise us, though steep discounts to the cash market should limit any selling. Wholesale beef prices firmed another $3.38 for Choice and $2.20 for Select on Thursday, while movement stayed solid at 115 loads. Some plants are now cutting in the black after an extended period of red ink. The rapidly rising wholesale beef prices have feedlots expecting higher cash cattle prices for a fourth consecutive week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly higher after corrective gains on Thursday. But futures finished well off their highs signaling traders continue to be hesitant buyers despite the rising cash market. The CME lean hog index marked a for-the-move high for a second straight day, rising 37 cents to $92.13 as of May 15. June lean hog futures built their premium to the cash index to $6.245 after yesterday’s gains. The pork cutout value dropped $1.43 on Thursday amid weakness in all cuts. While the cutout held above the $100.00 level, this week’s price action suggests there’s limited retailer demand above that mark.