GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 15 cents higher.
Wheat: 18 to 28 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures led overnight gains amid concerns with the HRW crop and the Black Sea grain deal. Outside markets provided mild support. Crude oil futures are modestly firmer this morning, while the U.S. dollar index is around 200 points lower.
USDA reported daily soybean meal sales of 100,000 MT to Poland for 2022-23.
Traders are still digesting last Friday’s May crop reports from USDA, which included bullish data for wheat. The initial winter wheat crop estimate came in well under expectations, which pulled projected 2023-24 ending stocks lower than the current marketing year.
Ukraine says the situation with the Black Sea grain deal is uncertain. There are currently no talks planned for this week regarding an extension of the deal, which is set to expire May 18.
Weekend rainfall was heavy across southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, northern Nebraska, central Oklahoma and central/southern Texas. Kansas was dry, though it should receive some rains this week, according to World Weather Inc. Weather models removed rains for West Texas this week. The forecaster says all U.S. crop areas will get rain at some point during the next 10 days.
Analysts expect members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report April soybean crush totaled 174.2 million bushels. While that would be down 11.6 million bu. (6.3%) from March it would be a record for the month and up 4.4 million bu. (2.6%) from last year. Soyoil stocks are expected to be reported at 1.828 billion pounds. The NOPA crush data will be released at 11 a.m. CT.
CORN: July corn futures continue to consolidate above the recent lows. Near-term support and resistance are clearly defined at $5.69 1/4 and $6.00, respectively.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures bounced overnight after finding support just above last week’s low. That level at $13.85 1/4 is initial support, followed by the March low at $13.83 3/4. Near-term resistance is layered from the 5-day moving average at $14.02 1/2 to last week’s high at $14.46 3/4.
WHEAT: July HRW wheat futures pushed above the winter highs overnight, strengthening the near-term technical posture. A breakout above the recent bull flag formation projects the contract to the $9.64 area. The February high at $8.94 1/4 is not key near-term support.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone. While cattle futures remain well below the cash market, buyers are likely to remain cautious as they wait on the cash and product markets to put in seasonal lows. Given the tight supply situation there is hope seasonal bottoms in both markets will come early this year, though neither market has signaled lows are in place yet. Choice boxed beef prices fell another $1.11 on Friday, while cash cattle prices dropped for a fourth consecutive week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though we expect any buyer interest to be limited as traders wait on the cash market to show stronger gains. The CME lean hog index is up 51 cents today (as of May 11) to $75.91, the highest level since March 28. June hog futures, which are the new lead-month contract, finished Friday $8.19 above today’s cash quote. The pork cutout value firmed 19 cents on Friday, though movement slowed to 208 loads.