GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: 6 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat futures traded lower overnight, while soybeans finished mildly firmer after two-sided trade. Outside markets are negative, though not as much as earlier, as the U.S. dollar index has backed off its gains. Front-month crude oil futures are more than $1.50 lower.
Temperatures will trend cooler than normal across the Corn Belt, with scattered showers and rains expected early this week. Warmer temps will start to move into the Plains the second half of the week and spread eastward during the weekend. HRW wheat areas of the Plains will be mostly dry over the next 10 days.
USDA this afternoon is expected to report soybean crush totaled a record 197.2 million bu. in March, which would be a record for the month and the second highest total ever for any month. Corn-for-ethanol production is expected to total 441.3 million bu., which would be up 41.5 million bu. (10.4%) from February but 4.2% below year-ago.
EPA could delay a decision to add electric vehicles (EVs) to the Renewable Fuel Standard that would give EV manufacturers tradable credits for using electricity generated from renewable fuels, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The threat of expected legal challenges from the proposed rule is drawing concern from the Biden administration, which is expected to finalize the regulation by June 14.
Managed money accounts moved to a net short position of 15,297 futures and options contracts in the corn market as of April 25, according to the Commodity Futures Trade Commission. Funds trimmed their net long position in soybean futures and options to 87,208 contracts, while they extended their net short in SRW wheat to 113,012 contracts.
CORN: July corn futures pulled back from Friday’s corrective gains overnight. Near-term support extends from $5.80 1/2 to last Friday’s low at $5.72. Near-term resistance starts at last Friday’s high at $5.87 3/4 and extends to the 5-day moving average at $5.91 3/4.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures pivoted around Friday’s closing level overnight. Near-term resistance is at last Friday’s high at $14.23 1/2. Near-term support starts at the 5-day moving average around $14.14 3/4 and extends to last week’s low at $13.96 1/2.
WHEAT: July HRW wheat futures virtually erased Friday’s corrective gains overnight. Near-term support is at last week’s low at $7.61 3/4, followed by the psychological $7.50 mark. Near-term resistance is previous support at $7.80 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, though two-sided trade is likely. Cattle futures continue to trade below the cash market despite bullish supply-side fundamentals. With fresh contract supplies available to packers with the flip of the calendar, it’s likely this week’s cash cattle negotiations will drag deep into the week. As a result, we expect traders to remain cautious about aggressively adding to long positions in futures. Choice boxed beef prices firmed 37 cents on Friday, while Select fell 75 cents. Movement was light at 87 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on followthrough buying after a strong finish last week. But it wouldn’t surprise us to see futures pull back as traders wait on the cash market to pick up steam. The CME lean hog index is 20 cents higher to $71.49 (as of April 27) and has firmed three of the last four days, though the net gain over that span is only 31 cents. May hog futures finished $8.16 above today’s cash quote, while the June contract held a $20.21 premium. The cash market must show greater daily gains for traders to actively extend the corrective rebound in hog futures. The pork cutout value firmed $2.51 on Friday, though movement slowed to 193 loads.