GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybean and wheat futures firmed overnight as markets continued to rebound from sharp losses earlier in the week. Corn found buyer interest late in the session from rumors China bought some U.S. corn and sorghum after the sharp price break. Outside markets are mixed, with front-month crude oil futures down around 50 cents and the U.S. dollar index more than 350 points lower this morning.
Argentina is still going to struggle for moisture in the east-central and southeast part of the nation, but there a couple of opportunities for rain in the southwest next week. World Weather says rains will be light, which will continue crop stress in the driest areas.
Weather in south-central Brazil will slowly improve, as rainfall amounts and intensity will decline, according to World Weather, though Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul need a few days of complete dryness to get fields to firm up enough for more aggressive fieldwork.
Brazil’s ag ministry says another 90 firms have been cleared to export corn to China, increasing the total to 446. Brazil forecasts record corn shipments in 2022-23.
Brazilian biosecurity agency CTNbio has approved cultivation of a drought-resistant GMO wheat in the country, making Brazil the second country after Argentina to grant such a permission in the world.
CORN: May corn futures are pausing after the recent sharp price drop, forming a bear flag on the daily chart. That makes Wednesday’s low at $6.22 1/4 key near-term support. Violation of that level would confirm a downside breakout from the bear flag formation and project the contract to the $5.78 level. Near-term resistance is at Thursday’s high at $6.41 1/2 and then previous support at $6.48 1/4.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures have recouped most of the sharp losses posted the first two days this week. The contract pushed above the 40- and 50-day moving averages overnight but stopped right at the 10-day average at $15.15 1/2, making it solid initial resistance. Above that level, resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $15.18 1/2. The 5-day moving average near $15.01 1/2 is support.
WHEAT: May SRW wheat futures have formed a bear flag on the daily chart. Wednesday’s low at $7.01 3/4 is key near-term support, as violation of that level would project the contract sharply lower. Previous support at $7.20 3/4 is key near-term resistance.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone. While Thursday’s close was poor and could lead to followthrough selling, underlying fundamentals are bullish and should limit seller interest. Cash sources still expect firmer cash cattle trade to develop, though active followthrough selling in futures today could entice some feedlots to move animals at steady prices. April live cattle futures finished Thursday just 38 cents above last week’s average cash price. Wholesale beef prices firmed on Thursday, with Choice up 67 cents and Select $1.15 higher. Strong wholesale prices are keeping packer margins solidly in the black, giving them incentive to acquire as many cattle as possible.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly lower on followthrough selling after a poor close that resulted in an outside day down in the lead April contract. The path of least resistance is down and traders are showing no signs of wanting to actively buy futures. But seller interest should be limited as the contract’s premium to the cash index continues to tighten. The CME lean hog index is up another 7 cents to $78.65 (as of March 1). April lean hog futures’ premium to the cash index narrowed to $5.20 as of Thursday’s close. The pork cutout value firmed 19 cents on Thursday, despite loins and bellies dropping more than $1 each.