GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: 10 to 15 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat futures posted strong gains overnight amid global supply concerns given the political instability in Russia. Soybeans also firmed, while corn finished the session narrowly mixed. Outside markets are mildly price-supportive for grains with crude oil futures modestly firmer and the U.S. dollar index more than 250 points lower.
Russia pulled back from the brink of a crisis after a deal was reached to end an insurrection by thousands of Wagner fighters who were advancing toward Moscow. The abrupt about-face followed a rare, remarkable challenge to the Kremlin that threatened to plunge the country into chaos and destabilize its already stumbling war efforts in Ukraine.
Substantial rain fell across portions of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota during the weekend, while lighter rain fell from southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska into northern Iowa and northern Illinois. But a big portion of the Midwest missed the rains and dryness expanded to the southwest because of warm to hot temperatures. World Weather Inc. says conditions will be mostly dry until late this week when there will be another chance for rains across some areas of the Corn Belt. The forecaster notes the Gulf of Mexico will open as a moisture source for the central U.S. during the weekend and a more normal pattern occurs next week as the Bermuda high finally gets in its normal position.
Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest reached 9.3% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was behind the 20.3% clip on that date last year. Much of the harvest is concentrated in Mato Grosso, with the firm noting “high humidity” is limiting efforts in other states.
CORN: December corn futures pivoted around last Friday’s low and closing level during overnight trade. The overnight low at $5.75 1/2 is near-term support, followed by previous resistance at $5.71. Near-term resistance is at the psychological $6.00 mark and the 5-day moving average at $6.04 3/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures pivoted around Friday’s closing level overnight. Friday’s low at $12.90 3/4 is near-term support, followed by previous resistance at $12.85 3/4. Near-term resistance is at the 5-day moving average at $13.38 1/4.
WHEAT: July SRW futures pivoted around last week’s high overnight. The overnight high at $7.56 3/4 lines up with the 200-day moving average to form solid near-term resistance. Above that level, bulls would target the psychological $8.00 mark. Near-term support extends from $7.35 1/4 to $7.17 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, though seller interest should be limited by the steep discounts futures hold to the cash market. Cash cattle prices weakened last week and will likely face pressure again this week as packers have a holiday-shortened slaughter schedule next week and fresh contract supplies coming with the flip of the calendar. Wholesale beef prices dropped on Friday, with Choice down 46 cents and Select $3.84 lower. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report showed all three categories above expectations, especially placements during May. But this marked the 10th straight month of year-over-year declines in feedlot inventories. While the placements suggest second-half supplies won’t be as tight as once expected, feedlot numbers will continue to decline relative to year-ago.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on support from the firming cash market. The CME lean hog index is up another 94 cents to $91.41 (as of June 22), the highest since early November of last year. July lean hog futures finished last Friday 13.5 cents below today’s cash index quote, while August hogs held a $1.735 discount. That suggests traders sense the cash market is nearing its seasonal top despite recent daily gains being some of the strongest during the price rally. But it should limit seller interest. The pork cutout value firmed 86 cents on Friday.