GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS narrowly mixed.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans failed to sustain followthrough buying overnight and faded to slight losses at the end of the session. Corn posted mild gains, while wheat had a varied tone. We expect similar price action this morning, though soybeans could be the key. If profit-taking seen late in the overnight session turns heavier ahead of the extended weekend it could pull the other markets lower. Outside markets are varied, with crude oil around 20 cents higher and the U.S. dollar index more than 250 points higher.
Grain and livestock markets trade normal hours today. All markets and government offices are closed Monday, Jan. 16, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer market reports next Monday. Grain markets will reopen at 7:00 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 16, for the overnight session. Livestock markets will resume trade at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday, Jan. 17.
China imported 10.56 MMT of soybeans in December, up 19.1% from last year and the highest monthly tally since June 2021, as importers tried to ease tight supplies. For 2022, China imported 91.08 MMT of soybeans, a 5.6% decline from the previous year.
China’s overall exports and imports dropped sharply in December. China’s exports fell 9.9% versus year-ago in December, the steepest decline since January/February 2020. Its imports tumbled 7.5%, the third straight monthly decline. That left China with a trade surplus of $78.01 billion in December, up from $69.25 billion in November but down from $93.21 billion in December 2021. China’s 2022 trade surplus hit a record $876.91 billion, compared with $670.4 billion in 2021.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Jan. 18-24 will be 4,719.4 rubles ($68.79) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $309.50. That’s down slightly from a rate of 4,766.3 rubles per metric ton the previous week and ends a six-week string of increases.
CORN: March corn futures moved into the upper end of the December trading range from $6.35 to $6.85 and are poised for strong weekly gains. The upper end of that range is stiff resistance. Near-term support is in the $6.62 1/4 to $6.60 range where the short-term and intermediate moving averages stand.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures posted the first close above $15.00 on Thursday since the last trading day of 2022 but failed to find sustained buying overnight. The overnight high at $15.28 1/4 is initial resistance, with stronger resistance at the December high at $15.37 1/2. The 5-day moving average is right at the psychological $15.00 mark, which is near-term support, followed by the 10-day average around $14.96 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW wheat futures remain in the downtrend drawn off the October and November highs but have worked well off this week’s lows and are just a couple cents below last Friday’s close at $7.43 1/2. Near-term resistance is at Monday’s high at $7.58. Tuesday’s low at $7.20 1/2 is support.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone this morning as traders await direction from the cash cattle market. Cash cattle negotiations dragged on Thursday with limited sales, as feedlots tried to buy cattle at lower prices and feedlots wanted more money for supplies. February live cattle futures finished Thursday at $157.55, down just 19 cents from last week’s average cash price, indicating traders expect cash trade to eventually take place at around steady prices. Wholesale beef prices dropped $3.24 for Choice and $1.09 for Select, though movement was solid at 132 loads.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open weaker amid continued pressure on cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is down another 47 cents to $75.49 (as of Jan. 11), just 43 cents above last year’s level at this time when the cash market was already $5 above its seasonal low. The pork cutout value fell another $1.35 yesterday to $79.33, the lowest level since Jan. 20, 2021. With hog futures short-term oversold and a three-day weekend ahead, it wouldn’t surprise us if the market finds some corrective buying at points today. But the upside will be limited to corrective buying until cash fundamentals show signs of a seasonal low.
China imported 700,000 MT of meat in December, up 30,000 MT (4.5%) from November and 7.7% greater than last year. China’s preliminary data doesn’t break down meat imports by category, but the steady increase since late summer has been due to higher pork imports. For 2022, China imported 7.4 MMT of meat, down 21.0% from the previous year.