GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grains posted modest corrective bounces overnight as some of the dust settled from the tariffs/trade concerns that weighed on markets Thursday. However, the trade environment remains highly unsettled. With funds long corn and soybeans and this being a seasonally weak period for wheat, there could be additional selling ahead of the weekend and on month-end trade.
USDA reported daily soyoil sales of 20,000 MT to unknown destination for 2024-25.
Mexico and Canada took actions to potentially ward off coming U.S. tariffs on March 4 tied fentanyl. Mexico has transferred 29 high-profile cartel operatives to U.S. custody, signaling increased co-operation between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. authorities. Canada sent its new “fentanyl czar” and cabinet ministers to meet with President Donald Trump’s border czar Tom Homan this week.
China took an aggressive stance, accusing the U.S. of exerting “tariff pressure and blackmail” and saying tariffs threats created “a serious impact, pressure, coercion and threat to the dialogue.” China vowed to counter tariffs “with all necessary measures.”
Today is first notice day for March grain/soy futures, the start of the delivery process. There were no deliveries registered against March corn or soybeans. Deliveries totaled 466 for SRW wheat, 314 for HRW wheat, 641 for soymeal and 792 for soyoil.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.5% annually during January. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.3% from the previous month and 2.6% from year-ago – the lowest since June 2024.
CORN: May corn futures broke down technically on Thursday, falling to the lowest level since Jan. 13. The contract is now trading well below the short-term and intermediate moving averages. Thursday’s low at $4.80 is near-term support, followed by a 50% retracement of the rally from the late-November low to this month’s high around $4.75 and then the 100-day moving average near $4.63.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to trade in a choppy-to-lower pattern, while holding within the broad sideways range from the mid-January low to this month’s high. Near-term support extends from Thursday’s low at $10.35 to the Jan. 17 low at $10.30 1/4. Near-term resistance starts at $10.50.
WHEAT: May SRW futures dropped to a one-month low on Thursday, falling below a 61.8% retracement of the rally from the January low to this month’s high. Thursday’s low at $5.60 stands as near-term support. Near-term resistance is heavily layered above $5.70.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in continuation of Thursday’s gains. Traders will closely monitor the corn market, which has been providing price direction, especially to feeders. Only light cash cattle trade has occurred so far this week at mostly $2.00 lower prices. With futures signaling short-term lows, feedlots may limit sales if bids remain weak. Wholesale beef prices dropped $1.72 to $311.18 for Choice and $1.11 to $302.13 for Select on Thursday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open under pressure on active followthrough selling after the market posted sharp to limit losses and low-range closes on Thursday. Fears of retaliatory trade actions by Mexico, Canada and China – three of the top five markets for U.S. pork – if the U.S. enacts 25% tariffs on March 4 triggered heavy selling. Barring some positive news on the trade front, more heavy liquidation pressure is possible to close the week. The CME lean hog index is down a dime to $89.39 as of Feb. 26, marking losses in four of the past five days. After Thursday’s price plunge, April lean hog futures held a $5.015 discount to today’s quote. Pork cutout jumped $4.30 on Thursday, fueled by a $26.64 surge in primal bellies.