GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 6 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Early price strength during overnight trade was not sustained as corn and wheat faded to losses, while soybeans ended mixed. We expect a mostly weaker tone on the reopening of trade this morning amid corrective selling following strong gains last Friday. Crude oil futures are also weaker and could provide some pressure on grain and soy futures. The U.S. dollar index is mildly firmer.
Central and southern Argentina received good rain coverage overnight, though World Weather Inc. said the region is “not likely to get a huge amount of drought relief.” Additional rain will fall in western Cordoba later this week and today’s rain may linger a while in east-central Buenos Aires. Not much additional relief is expected in central or southern Argentina this week.
Central Brazil had improved conditions for soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting, though rains are expected to return. Brazil’s greatest rain will shift northward after this week, eventually returning some drier weather to the west and southern parts of the nation.
Brazil’s soybean harvest increased to 17% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, though that was still seven percentage points behind last year. Safrinha corn planting more than doubled to 25% complete, though that lagged last year’s 42% for the date.
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 11.4 million cotton acres this spring, down 17% from 2022, according to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC’s) annual survey. Increased acres are expected to be planted to corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops in place of cotton.
CORN: March corn futures found support overnight at the 10- and 20-day moving averages in the $6.78 to $6.77 1/2 range. Stronger support is at the 40-day moving average around $6.70 1/4 and last week’s low at $6.69 1/4. Resistance starts at last Friday’s high at $6.82 3/4 and extends to the January high $6.88 3/4.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures pushed above the January high at $15.48 1/2 overnight but failed to find sustained buying at that level and faded. The overnight high at $15.53 1/4 is solid near-term resistance. Near-term support is the 5-day moving average near $15.27 1/2 and the 10-day average at $15.28 1/4.
WHEAT: March SRW wheat futures failed overnight to find followthrough buying above last Friday’s high and faded. The overnight high at $7.90 3/4 is near-term resistance, followed by the December high at $7.99. Near-term support is the 5-day moving average near $7.67 and the 10-day average at $7.62 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on support from the cash market. Cash cattle reportedly traded $1 to $2 higher in the Southern Plains and up to $4 higher in the northern market late last week. Packers are thought to need more near-term supplies, which gives traders hopes of stronger cash prices again this week. But buyer interest in futures may be limited as traders wait on the official average cash price for last week’s trade later this morning and ahead of what’s likely to be delayed cash activity this week. Boxed beef prices firmed 37 cents for Choice and 28 cents for Select on Friday amid movement of 111 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone this morning. While the cash market continues to show signs a seasonal low is in place, traders haven’t shown a willingness to increase the premiums already built into futures. The CME lean hog index up another 21 cents to $74.01 (as of Feb. 9), extending the string of daily gains to seven and 11 of the last 13 it has been higher. February lean hog futures, which exit the board on Tuesday, finished Friday $1.865 above today’s cash quote, while the April contract held a $9.315 premium. The pork cutout value firmed 66 cents on Friday to $81.05. Key will be whether packers can find enough retailer demand to hold prices above $80.00, as that has been a recent level that has been hard to sustain.