GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 10 cents lower; spring wheat 2 to 4 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans reacted positively after USDA released its initial projections for 2025-26 ahead of this morning’s Ag Outlook Forum. The market maintained gains through the end of the overnight session, despite disappointing weekly export sales. Corn faced selling after the weekly export sales data was released and wheat extended its losses. The U.S. dollar index is around 400 points higher this morning, while front-month crude oil futures are about 80 cents higher.
Based on the February WASDE Report, USDA projects the following for 2025-26:
- Corn: Planted acreage of 94.0 million, with production of 15.585 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 1.965 billion bushels. Average cash price: $4.20.
- Soybeans: Planted acreage of 84.0 million, with production of 4.370 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 320 billion bushels. Average cash price: $10.00.
- Wheat: Planted acreage of 47.0 million, with production of 1.926 billion bushels. Ending stocks: 826 million bushels. Average cash price: $5.50.
- Cotton: Planted acreage of 10.0 million, with production of 14.6 million bales. Ending stocks: 4.8 million bales. Average cash price: 65.0 cents.
Click here to view more details on the initial 2025-26 balance sheets for the above crops, along with the outlooks for livestock, dairy, poultry and eggs.
Export sales for the week ended Feb. 20:
Corn: Net sales of 794,700 MT for 2024-25 fell 45% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Sales came in below pre-report expectations of 900,000 MT to 1.65 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 410,900 MT for 2024-25 dropped 14% from the previous week but were 10% above the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of the range of pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 269,000 MT for 2024-25 declined 50% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. Sales fell shy of traders’ expectations ranging from 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
CORN: May corn futures have consolidated the past two days after three sessions of long liquidation pressure, forming a potential bear flag on the daily chart. Key near-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of $4.88 1/2, followed by the Feb. 3 low at $4.84. The psychological $5.00 mark is near-term resistance.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures are trading in the lower half of the broad sideways range from the Jan. 17 low of $10.30 1/4 to this month’s high at $10.92 1/2. Key near-term support is at this week’s low of $10.37 1/4, while near-term resistance is layered from the 40-day moving average around $10.51 to the 20-day average near $10.58 1/2.
WHEAT: May SRW futures have broken down technically, falling during five of the past six sessions and extending those losses overnight. The uptrend from the January low has clearly been violated and the contract has retraced more than 50% of the rally from the January low. The 50-moving average near $5.69 1/2 is next support and corresponds with the 61.8% retracement level. The 100-day moving average around $5.80 is resistance.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on followthrough selling after losses on Wednesday. Feeders are likely to be choppy as traders closely monitor corn, with that market showing little price movement overnight. Packers have been slow to establish cash cattle bids. It appears active cash trade won’t be seen until sometime Friday and negotiated sales are likely to be low again this week. Wholesale beef prices dropped $1.42 to $312.90 for Choice and 89 cents to $303.24 for Select on Wednesday. USDA reported weekly beef export sales of 18,200 MT, down 15% from the previous week but up 4% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s corrective rebound. April lean hog futures bounced from a level that has supported prices since mid-November. Followthrough today would suggest short-term lows are in place and could start an extended rebound, as happened the four previous times prices fell that level. The CME lean hog index is up 2 cents to $89.49 as of Feb. 25, halting a three-day slide. The pork cutout firmed $1.01 on Wednesday, driven by a $10.30 jump in primal bellies. USDA reported weekly port export sales of 32,200 MT rose 26% from the previous week and were unchanged from the four-week average.