GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 4 to 8 cents higher.
Soybeans: 12 to 18 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat markets 8 to 16 cents higher; spring wheat 5 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat were supported overnight by a combination of weather concerns and geopolitical uncertainty in the Black Sea region. That strength will carry over to daytime trade. Outside market lean a little negative this morning, with crude oil slightly lower and the U.S. dollar index modestly firmer, but traders’ focus is firmly on weather and Black Sea tensions.
USDA reported daily corn sales of 112,000 MT to Mexico for 2023-24.
A high pressure ridge will bring extreme heat over the next week across the central United States. While temps will be hottest in the Plains and western Corn Belt, well above-normal reading will also be seen in the eastern Corn Belt, Mid-South and Delta. Conditions will also be dry across most of these areas. World Weather Inc. says scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop in the Plains and eastern Midwest during the second week of the forecast while the western and central Midwest stays mostly dry. The combination of extreme heat and lack of rainfall will stress crops and could cause them to shut down in the driest areas.
India is heading for its driest August in more than a century, with scant rainfall likely to persist across large areas, partly because of the El Niño weather pattern. August rainfall is expected to be the lowest since records began in 1901, threatening the country’s crops.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Aug. 23-29 will be 4,269.9 rubles ($45.64) per metric ton based on an indicative price of $235.40. That’s up from a rate of 3,712.8 rubles per metric ton the previous week and the highest level since the week of May 31-June 6.
CORN: December corn futures are hinting at a short-term low. But the move off the lows posted earlier this week is just a corrective rebound at this point. Bulls would need consecutive closes above $5.00 to suggest a low is indeed in place. Near-term resistance extends from $4.93 to $5.07 1/2. Near-term support is at this week’s low of $4.73 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures poked above the 20- and 40-day moving averages and are trading in the upper end of the short-term consolidation range. Near-term resistance is at $13.54. The 50-day moving average around $13.31 1/2 is near-term support.
WHEAT: December SRW futures remain technically bearish, but bulls have so far defended support at the May spike low at $6.08 1/4. Resistance is layered from $6.33 to $6.41 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Mixed.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open mostly lower after another disappointing close on Thursday. While cash cattle so far traded steady to $1 lower this week, futures have extended their discounts. Traders expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon to show the feedlot inventory as of Aug. 1 down 1.6% from year-ago, which would be the 11th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Placements are expected to have declined 5.5%, though that category has topped expectations the past couple of months, making it key. July marketings are expected to have dropped 5.2%. Wholesale beef prices firmed another $5.15 for Choice and $1.49 for Select on Thursday. Packer margins are close to turning positive, which could make them more aggressive with cash bids next week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone. Thursday’s corrective gains alleviated the short-term oversold condition. With the cash hog index continuing to weaken seasonally, that limits further gains, despite the still-wide discount structure. October hogs finished Thursday $21.17 below today’s cash index quote of $100.32 (as of Aug. 16). The pork cutout value firmed 52 cents on Thursday.