Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (finally) acknowledges heat, drought have slashed its wheat and canola crops

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the equivalent of USDA’s World Board, in its latest outlook report projected total field crop production would likely dive 27% in 2021-22 “as the overall drought in Western Canada worsened considerably throughout July, with most of the Canadian Prairies growing region experiencing record low levels of precipitation and record-breaking temperatures.”

Consequently, Agri-Food Canada expects Canada’s 2021-22 all wheat crop to drop 15.01 MMT (42.7%) from last season to 20.18 MMT. That includes a durum wheat crop forecast of 3.83 MMT. The country expects to export 14.1 MMT of wheat in 2021-22, roughly half of last year’s shipments. While demand from the U.S. is expected to be high (especially for durum wheat), reduced crop prospects are expected to limit shipments.

Canada will likely harvest a 15.00 MMT canola crop in 2021-22, a 10-year low and a 3.72-MMT (19.9%) drop from the 2020-21 season, despite an 8% rise in planted acres, according to Agri-Food Canada. Strong food and industrial use and export demand are expected to match production, dwindling carryout stocks to 700,000 MT—matching the 2020-21 season’s thin carryover. Of note, preliminary data signals Canada crushed a record 10.2 MMT of canola in 2020-21 and exported 10.9 MMT, which would be the second highest shipments on record.

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada will issue its survey-based estimates for the country’s crops on Aug. 30 at 7:30 a.m. CT. The following expectations are based on a Reuters survey. The wide range of trade estimates speaks to uncertainty regarding how much impact drought and some recent freezing temperatures had on crops. Production of all major crops is expected to slide notably from the 2020 season.