Corn
Price action: May corn climbed 2 3/4 cents to $4.60 1/4, which marked a 7-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Corn futures managed to post gains in a week of volatile, sideways trade. Those two words are generally not used in the same sentence describing the same market, but given the wide daily ranges yet little net change throughout the week, there really is no other way to describe it. Daily tariff announcements continue to dictate price action. The resilience seen in corn prices over the course of this week has been impressive. Bulls managed to post gains on the week despite acres coming in well above expectations and a tariff announcement that showed trade barriers that were worse than expected. With news potentially winding down next week, prices will likely be able to work higher, reflecting continued robust demand. There is a WASDE on Thursday that will reflect recent policy changes in trade which will give insight into how USDA views impacts from recent tariffs.
30-day outlook: Planting season is right around the corner and the market’s attention will quickly turn to planting pace and crop conditions. Recent rains in the Ohio river valley are likely to be added onto in the next couple of weeks. That has caused flooding in portions of Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio recently. If wetness continues, it could delay plantings past the ideal window. If plantings do get pushed back in the Ohio river valley (or elsewhere), it could lighten the increase in expected plantings. We continue to anticipate lower corn plantings than USDA. That could help boost prices over the course of the next month.
90-day outlook: There were reports that Vietnam is looking to remove trade barriers hindering U.S. exports to the country, which is ultimately the main objective of this week’s reciprocal tariffs. President Trump is looking to level the playing field for U.S. exports. Research done by the White House shows that even with this week’s “drastic” trade measures put into place, the tariffs charged to the U.S. by other countries is still more than what the U.S. charges on goods imported from those countries. A table noting the differences can be found in this morning’s policy update from Jim Wiesemeyer. Trade deals and barriers are going to matter more as the growing season progresses. While the old-crop corn balance sheet will likely remain fairly tight no matter what, new-crop prices are highly vulnerable given the high acreage number and barriers being in place beforehand, giving end-users time to find alternatives to U.S. crops.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans plunged 34 1/2 cents and posted a 46-cent weekly loss. May soymeal closed down $4.90 and plummeted $10.40 on the week, while May soyoil fell 122 points to 45.84 cents and still managed to score a 68-point gain for the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans faced extended selling pressure after China’s reprisal to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, announced midweek. China’s finance ministry said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all U.S. goods starting April 10 as a countermeasure to Trump’s 54% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing also announced it is adding several U.S. entities to an export control list and classifying others as an “unreliable” entity, as well as limited exports of rare earths materials, critical to defense and the manufacture of EV’s. USDA’s early-week Prospective Plantings data lent minimal support, nor did fading soybean crush figures. However, Secretary Brooke Rollins attempted to help soften the tariff blow early in the week by announcing $537 million in funding for biofuel infrastructure projects across 29 states. Look for continued risk-off sentiments to continue into next week, though a close well off today’s low could indicate that for the moment, the worst is over.
30-day outlook: U.S. weather will be a market driver as spring plantings ramp up in earnest across the Soybean Belt. USDA’s Prospective Planting Report earlier this week indicated producers intend to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which if realized, would be down 3.6 million (4.1%) from last year. World Weather Inc. reports excessive rain has already fallen across the lower U.S. Midwest and northern Delta in the past two days and the precipitation event will continue into Sunday, resulting in serious property and some crop damage. The worst areas will be from the heart of Arkansas through southeastern Missouri and western Tennessee to Kentucky. The forecaster indicates significant structural damage is likely, including port damage along the Mississippi River. Damage to ports and high river levels may impact barge traffic for days or even weeks. A drier period is expected to return next Tuesday through April 18.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. soybeans will be the lingering driver of the soy complex. China’s retaliation this week was an obvious escalation in the trade war. What happens next will be key and could include but not be limited to the cancellation of U.S. soybean sales or conversely, concessions that lead to a new trade deal. Uncertainty will likely continue to ring across the marketplace until demand knowns transpire, making domestic crush also important in the months to come. Soy crush has certainly faded as of late and could continue to suffer if biofuel production continues to be stalled by lacking subsidies and trade uncertainties.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat fell 7 cents to $5.29, near mid-range and on the week up 3/4 cent. May HRW wheat lost 11 1/2 cents to $5.57 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week were up 5 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The wheat futures markets today saw selling pressure amid a strong risk-off trading day in the marketplace that saw most of the raw commodity sector pounded lower, including crude oil showing strong losses and hitting a four-year low. A strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish outside-market element for wheat futures. Grain traders will be paying extra close attention to the U.S. stock indexes and crude oil next week, as when they rebound that would provide the first early clues that risk appetite may be returning to the grain markets. Next Monday afternoon also finds the first USDA (NASS) weekly crop condition reports for wheat.
30-day outlook: Weather conditions in U.S. wheat country are also near the front burner of the wheat futures markets. World Weather Inc. today reported freezing temps are still expected in U.S. HRW wheat areas Sunday with some frost and light freezes occurring. Much-needed precip will impact the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma today through Saturday. Longer-term, the forecaster said “portions” of the central and southwestern United States have been struggling with below-normal precipitation since the latter half of summer 2024, with the exception of November…. Part of this dryness will likely prevail through the balance of spring and into early summer. In the meantime, a wetter bias is expected at times in the eastern Midwest and a part of the Delta and a change toward wetter conditions should evolve in the far northern Plains and upper Midwest late this spring followed by a drier bias in July.
90-day outlook: In the coming weeks the turmoil in the general marketplace will likely recede significantly, allowing grain traders to focus more on wheat supply and demand fundamentals. USDA early this week trimmed its estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings 2% to 33.3 million acres. Reduced U.S. spring wheat planting intentions may also give the HRS market upside potential in the coming weeks.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures plunged 144 points to 63.36 cents although closed well off session lows. That marked a 354 point loss on the week.
5-day outlook: May cotton futures tagged limit down early in today’s session but ended the day a couple cents off session lows. Prices made a contract low but quickly recovered and ended the day near the March lows. Given the heavy oversold nature of cotton futures and the overall marketplace as a whole, some corrective strength is possible next week. Markets are moving in tandem as traders and investors alike take money out of the market and go to the sidelines. Once they being looking to re-enter the market, cotton could entice some traders as the market has shown extensive weakness compared to other markets, but any one entering the market is likely to be cautious as the market has rewarded bears for so long.
30-day outlook: Planting season is upon us and rainfall is likely to dictate some plantings this year, especially in Texas. Rainfall fell on much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, boosting soil moisture, says World Weather Inc. Additional rain is forecast but a drier outlook persists in the second week of the forecast, marking any boost in soil moisture as temporary. Some additional precipitation could entice producers to plant additional acres of cotton but with prices low and demand grim, the upside on acres seems limited.
90-day outlook: As we mentioned yesterday, tariffs increased for a lot of the U.S.’s top cotton buyers. A Trump executive order lifted tariffs on China, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, India, Japan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia. Vietnam was quick to look at potential renegotiations, which could have sparked some of the corrective strength seen today. Still, China’s staunch response, raising tariffs on U.S. goods shows a long and dreary road ahead for cotton bulls. If the U.S. is able to develop additional trade deals or hold China accountable for Phase 1 purchases, prices might be able to stage a rally, but demand prospects look grim at this juncture.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.