Corn: December corn futures slipped 3 1/4 cents to $3.91 at Friday’s close. That represented a weekly drop of 1 1/2 cents. Corn futures lacked excitement to end the week, despite noteworthy support from outside markets amid a tumbling U.S. dollar and followthrough gains in crude oil futures. Looming technical resistance continues to ward off buyers, with mostly favorable weather throughout the growing season improving prospects of robust production as the crop inches toward harvest. However, net drying is likely to occur through many areas of the Midwest, Delta and southeast states over the next five to six days despite a few infrequent showers and thunderstorms. The forecaster notes crop conditions should stay mostly good outside of drier pockets of Ohio, West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, Pennsylvania, southern Illinois and the Delta where some greater rain will be needed soon.
On Day 4 of the Crop Tour, scouts calculated an average corn yield of 192.79 bu. per acre in Iowa, up from 182.80 bu. per acre last year and from the three-year average of 185.79 bu. per acre. For Minnesota, the Tour found an average corn yield of 164.9 bu. per acre, down from 181.34 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 183.06 bu. per acre. See final Crop Tour results here.
Soybeans: November soybean futures rose 11 1/2 cents to $9.73 and near the daily high. December meal rose10 cents to $304.50 and September bean oil gained 103 points to 41.47 cents. The soybean complex futures today saw short covering from recent selling pressure that has soybeans and meal hovering near their contract lows. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a seven-month low today, as well as a solid rally in crude oil futures, worked in favor of the soy complex bulls today. Also friendly for the markets was a USDA reported daily sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2024-25. The just-concluded Pro Farmer Crop Tour and its final results this afternoon showed a bountiful U.S. soybean crop, which will likely limit buying interest in soybeans early next week. World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean weather “should be sufficient to support late-season summer crop development in the Midwest, with some timely rain expected later this month.” However, some hot temperatures will impact the west-central and southern soybean region briefly this weekend into early next week.
Wheat: December SRW wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.28, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close. December HRW futures lost 10 cents to $5.35, near the session low and hit a contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 11 3/4 cents to $5.72 1/4. The late-week price erosion in winter wheat futures markets, including technically bearish weekly low closes, suggest follow-through chart-based selling pressure from the speculators early next week. The wheat market bulls got no help today from a sharp drop to a seven-month low in the U.S. dollar index and a rally in the crude oil market, or by generally upbeat marketplace attitudes after Fed Chairman Powell leaned easy on monetary policy in a speech at the annual Jackson Hole Fed confab. About the only thing the wheat market bulls have going for them right now is that prices are short-term oversold, technically, and due for at least a corrective bounce very soon. World Weather Inc. today said concern is rising over a delay in early-season wheat planting in the southwestern U.S. Plains due to hot and dry conditions. However, some showers may occur late next week. Meantime, too much rain may be threatening spring wheat in northeastern China and parts of eastern Russia’s New Lands. “A frequent succession of weather disturbances will continue to inflict moisture upon the eastern Russia New Lands for an extended period of time.” Argentina still needs significant rain in Cordoba, Santa Fe and a few neighboring areas to improve wheat conditions prior to development in the spring, said the forecaster.
Cotton: December cotton rallied 157 points to 70.91 cents, ending the session above the 40-day moving average. Cotton futures found a bid today amid notable outside market support. The U.S. dollar spiraled lower to end the week, while crude oil futures extended corrective gains for a second straight session. Meanwhile, gains across equities further complemented the natural fiber following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as he fortified expectations of a rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September.
World Weather Inc. reports West Texas will continue to see limited rain and very warm temps, which will maintain some downward pressure on production. However, there is potential for “some” rain and cooler temps late next week and into the following weekend. Good harvest conditions are prevailing in southern Texas and the Texas Blacklands’ crop remains favorably rated. Weather in the Delta is expected to be drier than usual for an extended period of time, which may lead to some of the best fiber quality in the U.S. Weather in the southeastern U.S. continues to improve for cotton that survived Tropical Storm Debby’s wrath.
Cattle: Cattle and feeder futures traded mixed-to-lower Friday. Expiring August live cattle futures inched up 2.5 cents to $182.575, while most-active October dipped 20 cents to $175.70. That marked a weekly decline of $2.80. The expiring August feeder contract advanced 60 cents to $242.575, whereas most-active October rose 12.5 cents to $234.375, which represented a weekly drop of $1.575. Persistent cash market weakness as the week progressed, as indicated by northern cash prices for fed cattle averaging $184.38 Thursday, undercut early rally attempts in live cattle futures Friday morning. The drop seemingly kept the door open to sustained cash losses in the days and weeks ahead, as indicated by the discounts still built into August and October live cattle futures. However, the wholesale market remained strong, following up Thursday strength with impressive Friday morning gains. Choice cutout advanced $2.32 to $318.36, which if sustained, would be its highest quote since the market was backing down from its July highs. Such strength next week could make it very difficult for beef packers to persuade producers to take lower cash cattle bids next week.
The feeder index fell $1.06 to $242.67 Thursday afternoon, which likely kept bulls from developing any upward momentum in feeder futures today, especially since the August contract (which expires at noon next Thursday, 8/29), ended the day near par. The yearling market traditionally trades steady to firm during fall but shifts in fed cattle prices will almost surely set the tone for feeder values in the coming weeks.
The USDA will publish its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 2:00 CDT this afternoon. See Evening Report for the results.
Hogs: Wholesale strength continues supporting hog futures. The nearby October contract rallied 92.5 cents to $80.55 to end the week, which represented a weekly gain of $5.475. As expected, the CME hog index continued its seasonal decline through Wednesday, with the exchange confirming Wednesday’s quote for the hog index at $88.83, down 38 cents from Tuesday. Thursday’s preliminary figure fell another 61 cents to $88.22. But bears apparently couldn’t overcome the bullish impact of renewed wholesale pork strength. After pork cutout rose 88 cents to $96.43 Thursday, it surged another $2.86 to $99.29 at midsession today. The wholesale market has shown a pattern of surging on Friday, then setting back substantially early the week following, but having cutout back up near $100 implies considerable demand support for the market in the face of seasonally increasing supplies. On the other hand, this week’s preliminary slaughter total actually fell slightly (9,000 head) below last week, up quite modestly (also 9,000 head) above the comparable year-ago level. We still suspect strong demand from grocers and consumers will provide considerable support for the hog and pork complex in the coming weeks, which may tend to continue pulling discounted futures prices upward.