Corn: December corn fell 4 3/4 cents to $3.93 1/2. Corrective gains in the U.S. dollar largely outweighed a rebound in crude oil and additional evidence of export demand amid a flash sale and solid new-crop sales in USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report. Meanwhile, a reach to fresh contract lows and break out of the recent consolidation range in SRW wheat extended a risk-off tone across the grain complex.
Today’s flash sale consisted of 110,490 MT of corn to Mexico and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25. Weekly old-crop sales for the week ended Aug. 15 totaled 119,100 MT were a marketing-year low, but new crop sales were reported at 1.3 MMT, exceeding pre-report estimates ranging from 500,000 MT to 1.025 MMT. Shipments during the week rose 12% from the previous week to 1.16 MMT.
Crop Tour scouts are confirming a notable U.S. crop, with Day 3 results uncovering a record yield in Illinois, relative to the Tour. Samples averaged 204.14 bu. per acre, up from 193.72 bu. last year and the three-year average of 193.58 bu. per acre. In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 & 7 were 176.59 bu., 195.86 bu. and 191.59 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2023. The three-year averages for Districts 1, 4 & 7 are 182.55 bu., 183.54 bu. and 183.67 bu., respectively. Tune in to the ProFarmer website this evening at 8 pm CT for results for Iowa and Minnesota.
Soybeans: November soybeans fell 20 cents to $9.61 1/2, while December meal fell $4.60 to $304.10. September soyoil closed 56 points lower at 40.44 cents. Soybeans took back the biggest portion of gains notched over the past three sessions, despite a fourth straight day of export sales this week, as meal weakness and corrective gains in the U.S. dollar hindered buying interest. USDA reported daily sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans, bringing this week’s sales total to 1.26 MMT, along with a 105,000 MT sale of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for delivery during 2024-25. Meanwhile, USDA’s weekly export sales report for the week ended Aug. 15, showed net reductions of 43,700 MT of old-crop beans, falling short of pre-report expectations ranging from 100,000 to 400,000 MT. However, new-crop sales totaled 1.7 MMT, surpassing analysts’ pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.35 MMT.
On Day 3 of the Crop Tour, scouts found soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,419.11 for Illinois, up from 1,270.1 last year and the three-year average of 1,266.70. Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,108.76, 1,254.09 and 1,366.22, respectively, compared with 1,137.24, 1,120.30 and 1,170.28 in 2023. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,105.44, 1,201.49 and 1,253.91, respectively. Continue to find updates on X (formerly Twitter) by searching #PFtour24.
Wheat: December SRW wheat futures fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.35 1/2. December HRW wheat futures lost 6 3/4 cents to $5.45. Both markets closed near mid-range and hit new contract lows. December spring wheat futures fell 13 cents to $5.84. Today’s selling pressure in the December winter wheat futures contracts produced fresh chart damage to suggest still more downside price pressure in the near term. December SRW and HRW today saw technically bearish downside price “breakouts” from their recent trading ranges at lower levels. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index were also negative for the wheat futures bulls. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 492,700 MT for the week ended Aug. 15, up 45% from the previous week and 63% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of pre-report expectations. Exports totaled 470,200 MT. World Weather Inc. today said that in the northern Plains, conditions in the first week of the outlook “will be mostly favorable.” Western production areas could still use greater rain, but conditions will support fieldwork and crop maturation. The weather in the eastern half of the Northern Plains “will be nearly ideal with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine,” said the forecaster. Concern is rising over a delay in early-season wheat planting in the southwestern U.S. Plains due to hot and dry conditions. However, some showers may evolve late next week. Worldwide, too much rain may be threatening spring wheat in northeastern China and parts of eastern Russia. Winter wheat harvest in the CIS is advancing well. Argentina still needs significant rain in Cordoba, Santa Fe and a few neighboring areas.
Cotton: December cotton futures fell 101 points to 69.34 cents, closing nearer the session low. Cotton futures saw a corrective pullback today after three straight sessions of price gains. A solid rally in the U.S. dollar index today and a pullback in the U.S. stock indexes crimped the cotton market bulls, as did poor weekly USDA export sales data. Today’s report showed U.S. cotton sales of just 93,000 running bales (RB) for 2024/2025. Shipments were only 5,100 RB. Lower corn, wheat and soybean futures prices today also spilled over into selling pressure in cotton futures. World Weather Inc. today said West Texas will continue to see limited rain and very warm temperatures “which will maintain some downward pressure on production.” Good harvest conditions are prevailing in southern Texas and the Texas Blacklands’ crop remains favorably rated. Weather in the U.S. Delta is expected to be drier than usual for an extended period of time. Weather in the southeastern U.S. continues to improve for the cotton crop.
Cattle: Most-active October live cattle futures rallied $1.275 to $175.90 Thursday, while October feeders surged $2.575 to $234.25. Wednesday’s decline in live cattle futures probably reflected reports of cash market weakness in the north. USDA’s summary of yesterday’s trading indicated fed cattle traded rather actively at $184.78 in Nebraska and $186.27 in Iowa-southern Minnesota, which had to disappoint bulls hoping Tuesday’s Iowa-so. Minn. trade around $187.00 would put a stop to the general slippage. On the other hand, light Kansas trading took place at $183.96, whereas TX-OK-NM trade is stuck at $183.00. The Kansas strength may have encouraged bulls, as did persistent wholesale firmness. Indeed, after stabilizing above $315.00 and $301.00 Wednesday, respective Choice and Select cutout values climbed to $316.56 and $302. 77 at noon today. Futures traders are still anticipating sustained cash market losses over the next two weeks and through fall, but sustained wholesale prices around current levels would very likely limit the downside. Traders may also have started evening positions ahead of Friday’s monthly USDA Cattle-on-Feed report to be released at 2:00 pm CDT.
Hogs: Hog futures blasted higher after making a run at technical support. Nearby October futures leapt $3.475 to $79.625. Persistent cash and wholesale market stability in the face of surging hog supplies seemingly spurred renewed optimism among traders about the fall hog outlook. The fact the advance occurred on a day when equity markets sagged, and the U.S. dollar bounced made the advance doubly impressive. Cash markets are still declining on a seasonal basis and will probably continue doing so at least through Labor Day. The CME confirmed Tuesday’s official hog index quote 50 cents lower at $89.21. But Wednesday’s preliminary figure looks set to drop just 38 cents to $88.83; the smaller daily drop despite the seasonal pressure was notable. And while pork cutout reversed lower again yesterday afternoon, it bounced $2.18 to $96.73 at midsession today. The fact that picnic values were the only primal to lose ground made the increase remarkable as well. Bearish traders’ inability to mount a serious challenge of technical support at the contract’s 40-day moving average near $74.65 seemingly triggered the huge rebound, which carried the price almost $5.00 above the daily low.