Corn: December corn rose 1/4 cent to $3.98 1/4, a mid-range close. Corn futures gave up overnight strength despite persisting U.S. dollar weakness as crude oil edged lower for the fourth consecutive day. A subdued tone lingered across the marketplace following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary employment estimates, which showed a sharply revised figure, down 818,000 jobs for the 12 months through March, marking the largest revision since 2009.
On Day two of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, scouts found an average corn yield of 173.25 bu. per acre in Nebraska, up from 167.22 bu. last year and the three-year average of 169.37 bu. per acre. In Indiana, samples yielded an average of 187.54 bu. per acre, up from 180.89 bu. last year and the three-year average of 184.07 bu. per acre. Today, scouts on the western leg will sample fields in western Iowa, while scouts on the eastern leg will sample western Illinois and eastern Iowa.
USDA will release weekly export sales data first thing Thursday morning. Analysts are expecting net sales to have ranged from 100,000 to 300,000 MT for 2023-24 and 500,000 MT to 1.025 MT during the week ended Aug. 15.
Soybeans: November soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $9.81 1/2, closing above the 10-day moving average for the first time since July 25. December meal rose 40 cents to $308.70, while September soyoil edged 29 points higher to 41.00 cents. Soybeans gains overnight carried through into the day trade, with a third straight flash sale totaling 253,000 MT (132,000 MT China/121,000 MT unknown destinations) lending support. However, technical resistance continued to curb earnest buying efforts despite an increasing focus on expanding heat from the Southern Plains north into the western Corn Belt and central Great Plains. World Weather Inc. reports extreme heat will be possible in areas Friday into Monday, with rain and cooling needed soon thereafter to provide adequate relief.
Scouts on day 2 of the Crop Tour found soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,172.48 for Nebraska, up from last year at 1,060.02 and the three-year average of 1,150.06. Meanwhile, in Indiana, pod counts totaled 1,409.02, up from 1,309.96 last year and the three-year average of 1,238.55. Tune in for results for western Iowa and Illinois at 8 pm CT at Profarmer.com.
USDA will release weekly export sales data Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 100,000 to 400,000 MT for 2023-24 and 800,000 MT to 1.35 MT for 2024-25.
Wheat: December SRW wheat futures fell 12 1/2 cents to $5.44. December HRW futures dropped 9 1/2 cents to $5.51 3/4. Both markets closed near their daily lows and closed at new contract-low closes. December spring wheat futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $5.97. Today’s lower and low-range closes in winter wheat futures set the stage for follow-through chart-based selling pressure from the speculators on Thursday. Wheat bulls could get no traction today from a lower U.S. dollar index that dropped to a 7.5-month low. Slumping crude oil prices that today hit a two-week low and were poised to close at a 6.5-month low close likely limited speculator buying interest in the wheat futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the northern U.S. Plains conditions in the next seven days will still be favorable with a few exceptions. Some occasional rain will help support the needs of crops. However, greater rainfall will still be needed for Montana where soil moisture is lowest. In major global wheat-growing regions, too much rain may be threatening spring wheat in northeastern China and parts of eastern Russia’s New Lands, as well as in the eastern parts of Canada’s Prairies. Dry and warmer weather is needed in each of these areas to protect grain quality, said World Weather. Winter wheat harvesting in the CIS is advancing well. The outlook for Australia and South Africa wheat is favorable, said the forecaster. Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year. This time of year is a seasonally slow period for U.S. wheat sales abroad.
Cotton: December cotton futures rose 101 points to 70.35 cents today, near the session high and closing at a four-week high close. This week’s good price gains are beginning to suggest the cotton futures market has put in a price bottom. A strong finish to this week’s trade would better suggest such. The cotton bulls were boosted today by a rally in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes to four-week highs as both indexes are trending higher now. The natural fiber bulls were aided by a weaker U.S. dollar index that hit a 7.5-month low today. However, a slumping crude oil futures market at present is likely limiting some speculator buying interest in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said little to no rain through the next week will lead to increasing and expanding crop stress from the Delta through into western, central, and northern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Rain should fall on much of the Delta and the southeast Aug. 29-Sep. 1 “and the moisture will ease stress to crops in the drier areas while coming too late to benefit some crops.” The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will also be dry through much of the next two weeks, with some infrequent and mostly light showers that should not bring enough rain to have a significant impact on cotton or soil conditions “and stress to cotton should increase as the remaining soil moisture is lost to evaporation,” said the forecaster. Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, with a closer eye on the amount of U.S. sales going to China.
Cattle: Most live cattle futures continued their recent slides Wednesday. The expiring August contract rose 20 cents to $181.225, whereas most-active October fell 97.5 cents to $174.625. In contrast, feeder futures bounced modestly. Nearby August futures rose $1.05 to $239.25, while most-active October gained 35 cents to $231.675. Tuesday’s sharp futures breakdowns apparently persuaded producers to take lower packer offers, although the differences between trading in the north and south persisted. A few head of Nebraska cattle traded at $186.00, whereas active Iowa trading took place around $187.00. In light of the latter activity, we doubt Nebraska cattlemen will take less than $187.00 before Friday, if at all. Conversely, moderate Southern Plains trading took place at $183.00, while Kansas cattle changed hands around $183.50. The heavy Iowa trade lifted the daily and weekly five-area averages up to $186.39, which represented an approximate $2.80 drop from last week. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this week’s average decline a bit further, but other factors look supportive. The fact that nearby feeder futures rebounded significantly seems supportive, as did midsession wholesale gains. Choice cutout rose 67 cents to $315.75, while select cutout surged $1.20 to $302.24. And while bulls may be disappointed with beef prices at these levels, they remain quite elevated by historical standards. The fact that bears couldn’t force a larger downside follow-through in the wake of Tuesday’s dive, especially after a sharply lower opening, also looks technically supportive.
Hogs: Wholesale firmness seemed to support hog futures Wednesday, although futures turned lower late in the trading session. October hogs settled 22.5 cents lower at $76.15. Traders continue expecting the seasonal breakdown in hog and pork prices to prove quite large in the coming weeks and months, as reflected by the October and December contracts closes around $76.00 and $67.75, respectively. The disparity becomes more evident when one realizes the hog index remains above $89.00. The CME confirmed Monday’s index quote at $89.71, while USDA data indicates it will drop 50 cents to $89.21 when officially quoted tomorrow. Moreover, pork prices remain surprisingly firm. After having edged up 45 cents to $97.54 Tuesday, pork cutout advanced $2.15 to $99.69 at noon today. This is rendered more impressive when one realizes hog slaughter is climbing from summer lows and the increases will likely accelerate over the next two weeks. Given the futures reversal from early highs, today’s technical action was not particularly favorable, but nearby futures are trending higher. We still harbor suspicions the market will outperform expectations in September.